Concerns over low prices and oversupplies of swine and pork have triggered producers to slaughter some of their sow inventory, leading to a slight negative growth in sow beginning stocks in 2013.

In response to less sow inventory, pig crop production in 2013 is only expected to increase only one per cent to 690 million head. Floods in some swine producing provinces during July-August 2012 and higher feed grain prices are expected to cause smaller-than-expected slaughter weight.

Total pork consumption in 2013 is forecast to increase modestly by two percent to 53.1 MMT. The slower pace of increases in pork production will likely drive imports by five per cent to 840,000 MT (CWE). Strong demand for swine genetic improvement to raise efficiency attributed to higher feed grain prices are projected to drive 2013 breeding swine imports up 11 per cent to 20,000 head.

Pork exports are forecast to decline by seven per cent due to considerably reduced exports to Hong Kong, China’s largest export market, which is strongly challenged by competitively priced Brazilian exports to Hong Kong. Exports to Japan, the second largest export market, will likely be dampened by weak demand. These two markets account for over 70 per cent of China’s total exports. Live swine exports will remain at 1.61 million head due to level demand in Hong Kong and Macau, the only exports markets.

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