US hogs expected to rebound with higher production, firmer prices
Improved litter rates, steady demand to drive growth
15 April 2025
2 minute read
By: The US hog sector is expected to post steady gains in 2025, with production forecast to rise 3% to 28.5 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s Livestock and Poultry Outlook.
The rebound follows a profitable 2024, driven by lower feed costs and strong domestic and export demand.
Improved productivity is at the heart of the growth. Although the breeding herd remained virtually unchanged, a 2% increase in litter rates during 2024 supported a larger pig crop. Producer farrowing intentions for early 2025 also point to continued momentum.
Commercial hog slaughter rose 1% in 2024, with average dressed weights also up slightly. That trend is expected to continue in 2025, boosting total pork output.
Lean hog prices are forecast to climb 3% to an average of $65 per cwt, compared to $61.56 in 2024. Tighter beef supplies and sustained global demand are expected to lend price support, despite greater hog availability.
Pork exports rose 4% in 2024 to 7.12 billion pounds, with gains in Mexico and South Korea outweighing declines in China and Japan. For 2025, exports are projected to rise another 3% to 7.30 billion pounds, with the US maintaining its competitive position in global markets.
Imports are also expected to inch up 2% to 1.17 billion pounds, reflecting continued interest in specialty pork products, particularly from the EU and Brazil.
After weathering tough margins in 2023, hog producers now enter 2025 on firmer footing, with stable herd numbers, improving productivity and supportive pricing trends pointing to cautious optimism.
