Soybeans rally on hot Argentina weather, but fall yearly - CBOT
Global supply rises, pressuring prices
2 January 2025
2 minute read
By: Chicago soybean, corn and wheat futures rallied on Tuesday on short-covering and concerns over weather conditions in South America and Russia, Reuters reported, citing market analysts.
But prices for all three declined annually for a second consecutive year, as global supplies are ample and trade relations remain uneasy between the US and key export market China, analysts said.
The most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled up 18-3/4 cents at $10.10-1/2 a bushel, and corn ended up 6-1/4 cents at $4.58-1/2 a bushel.
But the CBOT's benchmark soybean contract ended the year down around 22%, and corn down 2.7%.
CBOT wheat futures Wv1 rose 3-1/4 cents to finish at $5.51-1/2 a bushel, but fell 12.2% for the year.
All three crops hit near their lowest levels since 2020 during the year, with soybeans returning to that trough in mid-December as beneficial rain increased prospects of a record Brazilian harvest in early 2025.
But a spate of dry weather in Argentina fuelled the jump in prices on New Year's Eve, said Randy Place, analyst with Hightower Report, as one of the world's largest corn and soy producers saw its crops threatened by more hot, dry conditions over the coming weeks.
News in wheat-growing areas of the Black Sea was more subdued, said Place, although Russia's state weather agency forecast earlier in the week poor conditions threatening the development of the wheat crop in the Central and Volga regions.
Very cold temperatures forecast for the Northern US Plains in the coming weeks could also threaten wheat crops there, said Place.
"This hasn't been a good year in any of the markets," said Place, but 2025 might be better, he said, with prices so low that there is little downside left.
With US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, uncertainty remains about how possible tariff hikes on multiple countries, including China, will affect trade.
"Everybody's just trying to figure it out on their own," said Place.
