The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in China forecasts 2025 swine production to grow due to higher 2024 sow inventories, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

Management and animal health techniques could improve the number of pigs per sow per year.

Average swine prices remained low through 2023, causing losses across the swine breeding industry. Producers started to reduce sow inventories and, according to the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (MARA), national sow inventories declined from almost 49 million in January 2023 to just under 40 million in April 2024.

Piglet prices have been climbing since the beginning of 2024 while live swine prices started moving higher in late May 2024 and have now passed the estimated breakeven point of RMB 15.2 per kilogram (kg) ($2.11/kg).

With the expectation of higher swine prices, swine producers started to expand swine production by restocking more sows. Industry sources report some producers began increasing their sow numbers in
April 2024 and MARA official data shows sow inventory started to rebound in May 2024, reaching 39.96 million.

Many of China’s largest large-scale swine facilities have slack capacity and can support herd expansion at existing facilities. Sources have shared that many facilities are operating at only around 70% of
capacity and can quickly adjust to new demand or advantageous prices. Feed prices are lower year-over-year in 2024. As feed is a significant cost for swine farming and piglet and pork prices are trending
higher, producers’ profitability is expected to be better than last year.