The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service post in Manila forecasts 2025 pork production at 1.06 MMT CWE, up almost 2% from the 2024 estimate of 1.04 MMT CWE, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

FAS Manila forecasts swine production profitability to improve in 2025 with feed costs declining as the domestic corn harvest returns to normal. While falling soybean meal prices provided some input cost relief, swine production costs have increased in 2024 due rising domestic corn prices, attributed to the El Nino impact on the corn crop. Corn makes up most of the feed ration for growing-finishing hogs.

Additionally, ASF outbreaks continue to impact the swine industry evidenced by the Philippine Statistics Authority First Half (H)1 2024 hog production estimate declining 2.2 percent compared to H1 2023. Post typically does not follow PSA data on pork production, but PSA's trendline (Figure 6) aligns with Post's analysis and sources in terms of this forecast. While ASF cases decreased from January 2024 to March 2024, cases have spread recently (August 2024) and this will limit the forecast growth in pork production in 2025.