2 January 2024

2 minute read

By: Global Ag Media

Plummeting export demand combined with surging feed prices created a piglet production dip in 2022, which started a new swine cycle by causing a price surge for piglets, hogs, and sows during the second half of 2022 through the first half of this year, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

At the same time, feed prices came down from the peak levels reported during mid-2022. With the current improved profit margins, swine farmers are generally less hesitant to stop production and more eager to keep their stables occupied. 

The improved profitability is expected to support a temporary rebound of slaughter during the second half of 2023, but not sufficient to balance out the reduced slaughter in the first half of the year. 

In absolute terms, the most significant cuts are expected in almost all main pork producing EU member states. In line with declining slaughter, EU pork production is forecast to decrease in 2023 and 2024. Because of the absence of a full recovery of Chinese demand due to the economic slowdown, the EU swine sector attempts to diversify exports to other third countries, but none of the destinations, not even combined, were able to fill the gap left by China. 

The sector also faces dwindling demand at the domestic market. EU consumers show a preference for poultry over pork based on health considerations, ease of preparation, and the relatively lower price. Through restructuring, the sector strives to bring the supply back in line with traditional domestic and export demand. 

Leading companies in northern and southern Europe plan to focus less on quantity and more on quality, profitability, and European consumer preference, furthering the concentration and integration of the sector.