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Daily US grain report: market traders finally get some bullish news

Corn was down around 2 cents, soybeans near steady and wheat around 3 to 5 cents lower.

1 October 2019, at 1:57pm

US grain futures prices were steady to weaker in overnight trading, on some mild consolidation following good gains scored Monday in the wake of a bullish USDA report that showed much lower corn and soybean stockpiles than expected by traders.

USDA's quarterly grain stocks report showed US soybean stocks at .913 billion bushels versus around .98 billion bushels expected by traders and .438 billion bushels in stocks at this time last year. US wheat stocks were 2.385 billion bushels versus around 2.3 billion bushels forecast, and 2.39 billion bushels at this time in 2018. US corn stocks were reported at 2.114 billion bushels in Monday's USDA report, compared to around 2.4 billion bushels expected by the trade and 2.14 billion bushels last year at this time.

Big and bullish upside price "breakout" from congestion area on Monday gives bulls power to suggest more upside in the near term
Big and bullish upside price "breakout" from congestion area on Monday gives bulls power to suggest more upside in the near term

© Jim Wyckoff

USDA weekly crop progress data out Monday afternoon showed the US corn condition rating at 57 percent good to excellent, which was expected. US corn harvest was 11 percent complete versus 14 percent expected. Soybean condition rating was 55 percent good to excellent, which was just above market expectations. US soybean harvest was 7 percent complete versus 6 percent expected. Winter wheat plantings were at 39 percent complete versus 36 percent expected.

Bulls gain near-term technical advantage as price uptrend has been restarted
Bulls gain near-term technical advantage as price uptrend has been restarted

© Jim Wyckoff

Weather in the US midwest will be very wet in the coming days, which will delay corn and soybean harvesting, and possibly quality of the crop. A major snowstorm in parts of US and Canadian spring wheat country occurred over the weekend. Those are also underlying bullish elements for the grains.

The very strong US dollar on the foreign exchange market (the US dollar index hit a new high for the year today) is an underlying negative for the US grains, making them more expensive on the world market.

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