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Daily US grain report: US grain futures weaker; bulls need fresh fundamental inputs

US grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading, as weekly USDA crop progress reports out Monday afternoon showed the corn and soybean crops not in too bad of shape considering the late planting.

30 July 2019, at 4:36pm

Corn was down around 2 cents, soybeans down 1 to 2 cents and wheat was 1 to 2 cents weaker.

USDA reported the US corn condition rating at 58 percent good to excellent versus 57 percent last week. Soybeans were rated at 54 percent good to excellent compared to 54 percent last week. Hard red spring wheat condition was 73 percent good to excellent versus 76 percent last week. Hard red winter wheat harvesting was 75 percent complete versus 84 percent last year.

Bulls are fading. Drop below July low of $4.20. 1/2 would produce serious chart damage and suggest sustained downtrend.
Bulls are fading. Drop below July low of $4.20. 1/2 would produce serious chart damage and suggest sustained downtrend.

© Jim Wyckoff

USDA weekly export inspections out Monday showed US soybeans exports to China at the best levels in five months. US soybean shipments of 600,000 metric tonnes were inspected for export to China last week. High-level US-China trade negotiators are meeting in China this week. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Lighthizer are in Shanghai for discussions that began today. Expectations are low for any significant breakthroughs.

The weather in the US Corn Belt most of this week is cooler but still a bit dry, but some rains are forecast for the weekend. This weather is now leaning slightly bearish for the corn and soybean futures markets.

Drop below July low of $8.90. 1/2 would produce serious near term chart damage and suggest a sustained price downtrend.
Drop below July low of $8.90. 1/2 would produce serious near term chart damage and suggest a sustained price downtrend.

© Jim Wyckoff

Trade in the US grain markets could be choppy and sideways for the next two weeks, ahead of the all important August 12 monthly USDA report, at which time the size of the US crops will be updated, as well as revised planted acres for US corn and soybeans. With very late planting of most of the corn and soybean crop, gain analysts have had a tougher time gauging the crop's yield potential and the acreage mix.