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Daily US grain report: grain traders now discounting last week's key USDA acreage numbers

US grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Corn is up around 1 cent, soybeans up around 4 cents and wheat down 1 to 2 cents.

2 July 2019, at 1:02pm

The grain market bulls are trying to stabilise prices following their recent downdrafts that have produced near-term technical damage in corn and wheat futures by negating their price uptrends on the daily charts.

Traders are now reckoning last Friday's USDA acreage numbers are not at all accurate and are nearly completely discounting them, as USDA will re-survey farmers and put out new acreage numbers in the August monthly crop report.

Bulls fade as chart damage inflicted - price uptrend negated. Bulls need to put in a good showing this week but have heavy lifting to do
Bulls fade as chart damage inflicted - price uptrend negated. Bulls need to put in a good showing this week but have heavy lifting to do

© Jim Wyckoff

The grain markets are also giving a not-so-positive read to last weekend's US-China summit meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. While China has said it will buy more US ag products going forward, "the proof will be in the pudding."

Weather in the midwest US now favours the bears, as drier and warmer conditions last weekend and more of the same in the coming days will greatly benefit the US crops.

Bulls fading and prices uptrend in jeopardy. Bulls need to show more power this week to avoid serious technical damage
Bulls fading and prices uptrend in jeopardy. Bulls need to show more power this week to avoid serious technical damage

© Jim Wyckoff

Corn and soybean futures to some slight support as Monday afternoon's weekly USDA crop progress reports showed crop conditions slightly below trader expectations.

Trading later this week could be extra important. Historically, the first trading day for the grains after the US Independence Day, which comes this Friday, is pivotal. Grain price trends can be reversed or existing trends accelerate during the critical early-July timeframe.