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USMCA ratification unlikely to happen in 2019

The Vice President of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute suggests it is now unlikely the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be ratified by all three countries until 2020.

6 May 2019, at 2:10pm

In its evaluation, released last month, the US International Trade Commission concluded the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement will have an overall favourable impact on the US economy.

That evaluation is another check in the list of things required before the deal can be ratified by congress and then presumably signed off by the President.
Colin Robertson, the Vice President and a Fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, says the timing of US ratification will influence the timing for ratification in Canada and Mexico.

"The first thing that we'll look for is when will the US administration actually bring in the implementing legislation which can now take place because the ITC report is in hand with Congress," says Robertson to Farmscape.

"When they introduce that legislation into Congress the clock begins to tick and there's 90 days - that's 90 legislative days not calendar days. 90 days that the House and the Senate are sitting to consider this legislation.

"That would take us to, if they were introduced in May, that would take us into July although the feeling is it could perhaps be done more quickly than that.
It would be considered by the Congress before the end of its current sittings before they adjourn and come back in the fall."

Robertson says, once the deal is ratified by the US, Mexico will be free to move forward with ratification. However, he says, it's doubtful Canada will have time to proceed before the next federal election because our house is likely to rise about the third week in June so Canada is unlikely to pass its implementing legislation until after the election which is likely to happen about the third week of October