Below is a brief recap of what the weekly export data implies for June/July:

While pork exports in May failed to surpass the record levels registered in March, they were close. Total shipments of fresh/frozen and cooked pork for the month were 174,245 MT, 10.3 per cent higher than a year ago.

March exports were 176,574 MT. Year to date pork exports are up 10.3 per cent compared to last year’s levels. Mexico remains by far the top destination for US pork and also its most significant source of export growth.

May exports to Mexico were 56,101 MT, 21.7 per cent higher than a year ago. Exports to Japan in May were 34,743 MT, 12.7 per cent above last year while exports to South Korea, at 15,041 MT, were 51.5 per cent larger than a year ago.

The most significant drag for US pork exports in the last two months has been China. Last year exports to China were particularly strong in April and May but they have pulled back recently. Pork shipments to the Chinese market in May were 16,907 MT, down 37.8 per cent compared to a year ago.

So far weekly export data has proved to be a relatively good indicator for monthly shipments. We had been projecting May exports to be up 12 per cent based on the weekly data and the official results came fairly close to that number.

Weekly exports have been indicating a notable slowdown in exports for June and early July. Still, based on weekly shipments June exports are currently projected to be up 2.7 per cent compared to a year ago and if the trend is maintained July exports are projected to be up 4.1 per cent.

Our working assumption is that US pork exports will continue to expand in the fall, thanks to ample pork supplies and much more competitive pricing relative to the EU.