With record profits in China with many consecutive months of profits we would all expect to see expansion. The latest China Ministry of Agriculture data does not indicate expansion happening.

Reality is less sows year over year of 1.38 million and 18.27 million smaller pig inventory.

From a Report by Hu Song CSEA:

The new environmental policy requires relocation of pig production. Assuming 10% of national pig inventory has to be relocated, it refers to 16 million pigs or equivalent to 1602 new pig farms (10,000 yield per year) or 1555 new sow farms (1000 per farm).

Summary

China sow herd is not expanding, pig inventory lower, environmental policy closing farms. Seems to us China market for imported pork will stay strong for conceivable future. China’s current hog price is a reflection of continued low hog supply. 15.38 Rmb/kg or $1.01 U.S live weight a pound.