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Weekly Overview: US 2017 Pork Production Outlook Increased

17 October 2016, at 12:00am

GLOBAL - The USDA has significantly increased its 2017 pork production outlook, expecting 3.8 per cent more pork in 2017 than this year's record.

The 2017 live hog prices forecast was also reduced by $2.50/cwt to $39-$43/cwt.

According to analyst Len Steiner, 2017 pork output is now expected to be 25.881 billion pounds, 953 million pounds (+3.8 per cent) more than in 2016 and 2.8 billion pounds (+12.4 per cent) more than what was seen on average during 2011‐14.

The analysts make note that while current prices may appear quite low compared to what was seen a couple of years ago, one needs to consider how dramatic the increase in total production has been and will be in the next 12 months.

In other news, market analyst Ron Plain reported that Hurricane Matthew disrupted hog slaughter on the east coast of America.

As a result, last week's weekly hog slaughter was down 118,000 head from the previous week, with hog slaughter totaling 2.304 million head.

The reduced hog slaughter was positive for cutout values. Last Friday's pork cutout value was $73.59/cwt FOB slaughter plants. That is up $1.46 from the week before.

Slaughter levels are now expected to be higher in the coming weeks in order to process the extra pigs.

In disease news, African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks have been reported in pig herds in Ukraine and Russia.