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Weekly Overview: Weak First Quarter Expected on Global Pork Market

8 February 2016, at 6:00a.m.

ANALYSIS - A new report from Rabobank states that the global pork market is expected to remain weak in the first quarter of 2016, followed by some - partly seasonal - improvement leading into the second quarter.

The Global Pork Quarterly Q1 report suggests that sufficient supply and modest demand development mean the Rabobank five-nation hog price index will bottom out in the coming months, at the lowest point since 2006, after a stronger-than-expected drop at the end of 2015.

“Recent positive demand and price developments in importing countries will start to support prices in exporting countries during Q1,” says Albert Vernooij, analyst Animal Protein at Rabobank.

For China and Brazil, the market is expected to remain positive. In the US, industry expansion is expected to slow after near-record supply growth in 2015, while packers’ margins will remain strong due to limited available capacity.

For the EU, its recent pork market recovery is predicted to reverse, after the closing of the pigment private storage scheme.

In disease news this week, Scotland's government announced that Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea (PED) will become notifiable in the country from 2 March.

Grace Webster, British Veterinary Association Scottish Branch President, said: “This successful outcome will support Scottish agricultural industry in taking control of this very serious disease and could well be extended to novel disease in other species. This is a fantastic example of government, vets and industry working together for the benefit of animal health and welfare and farming communities across Scotland.”

Also in PED news, Ontario, Canada, has reported a third outbreak of PED this January. The outbreak was reported on 27 January on a finishing farm in Bruce county.