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Breakeven Price for Markets Hogs Sold in June

by 5m Editor
16 July 2012, at 7:27am

US - USDA estimates 40 per cent of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition on 8 July. That compares to 48 per cent good or excellent the week before and 69 per cent a year ago, write Ron Plain and Scott Brown.

The Crop Progress report says 40 per cent of the soybean crop was rated good or excellent on 8 July compared to 45 per cent a week earlier and 66 per cent a year ago. Nationally, 50 per cent of pastures were rated poor or very poor on 8 July. That compares to 43 per cent poor or very poor the week before and 29 per cent a year ago. For Missouri pastures, the number is 87 per cent poor or very poor.

USDA's July crop report lowered predicted corn yield to 146 bushels per acre and raised the predicted marketing year price to $5.90/bu. The July corn futures contract ended the week at $7.5575/bu, up 13 cents from the week before and up $1.76 from four weeks earlier. December corn ended the week at $7.405/bu. July soybean meal ended the week at $489.90/ton, up $18.30 from the previous Friday.

Iowa State University calculations put the breakeven price for markets hogs sold in June at $65.12/cwt, the highest since December. Fortunately, hog prices jumped and the average June profit was $22.40 per head sold. During the first half of 2012, the average hog was sold at a profit of 69 cents per head.

Pork exports during May were up 9.6 per cent from a year ago and pork imports were down 2.7 per cent. For the month, exports equaled 23.3 per cent of production and imports equaled 3.3 per cent of production. During the first five months of 2012, pork exports were up 265 million pounds (12.8 per cent) with 70 per cent of the increase going to China.

USDA's Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $89.51/cwt, down $1.13 from the previous Thursday and $9.15 lower than this week last year. Bacon demand continues to be strong. Pork bellies are at $138/cwt, up $5.07 from a week ago, up $8.42 from a year ago, and the highest since 22 August.

Hog prices dropped this week. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $88.46/cwt, down $6.87 from last Friday. The eastern corn belt averaged $87.65/cwt this morning. The western corn belt averaged $92.48/cwt. Iowa-Minnesota averaged $92.92/cwt on the morning report. The east-west price spread remains very large. Peoria had a top live price this morning of $61 and Zumbrota had a live top today of $62/cwt. The top for interior Missouri live hogs Friday was $67.50/cwt, down $1.50 from the previous Friday. The average hog carcass price is 98.8 per cent of the cutout value.

Hog slaughter this week totaled 1.959 million head, up 11.6 per cent from the week before because of the 4 July holiday, but down 3.6 per cent compared to the same week last year. The average barrow and gilt live weight in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 269.0 pounds, down 1.0 pound from a week earlier, up 2.4 pounds from a year ago, and above year-earlier for the 33rd consecutive week.

Friday's close for the July lean hog futures contract was $97.22/cwt, up $1.00 from the previous Friday. August hogs settled at $90.40/cwt, down $2.90 for the week. October hogs ended the week at $79.47/cwt.