According to the Animal Husbandry Department and for 2011, total production of meat for the country was estimated around 4.31 million tons, up 7.7 per cent compared to 2010. During 2011, Viet Nam imported about 107,000 tons of meat from various countries, but mainly from the US (about 3.5 per cent of total meat production), but this is up 30.5 per cent over 2010. Year on year (January 2011 to January 2012),the accumulated total imports of meat is about 115,000 tons (including meat and livestock products), accounting for nearly 3 per cent of meat in the market. Imports do not have a large impact of price.

During the months of October and November, pig prices declined. In December pig prices showed signs of rising again as market hog prices were as high as 55,000 VND/kg to 57,000 VND/kg ($ 2.64 to $ 2.74 US/kg). On average, market hog prices rose about 10.8 per cent in December as compared with the previous month. Regionally, in the North, market pig price averaged 56,500 VND/kg ($ 2.72 US/kg). In the South, market pig prices were about 52,000 VND/kg ($ 2.50 US/kg). This month, the pig prices in the north area was about 53,500 VND/kg ($ 2.57 US/kg), down compared to Dec 2011, while in the South, pig prices had an average selling price range from 48,000 to 52,000 VND/kg ($ 2.31 to $ 2.50 US/kg).

In January, the price of some animal feed ingredients decreased slightly from December, 2011: soybean meal 9,975 VND/kg ($ 0.48US/kg) (down 5.6 per cent), rice bran 7,455 VND/kg ($ 0.36US/kg) (down 11.3 per cent), lysine 55,650 VND/kg ($ 2.68 US/kg)) (down 1.9 per cent) and fish meal 21,525 VND/kg ($ 1.03 US/kg) (down 4.7 per cent). Other materials were stable: corn 7,140 VND/kg ($ 0.34US/kg). Complete mixed feed for pigs from 60 kg to market weight was 9,271 VND/kg ($ 0.45/kg). This is up from December by 1.6 to 3 per cent. This would reflect extra cost for handling, grinding and processing.

February 2012

As reported by the Department of Livestock, meat production in February increased across the country, estimated at over 460 thousand tons of meat, (an increase of 4 per cent compared to the time before the New Year 2012-January).

In the North, the price of market pigs ranged from 54,500 to 56,000 VND/kg ($ 2.62 to 2.69 US/kg). In the South, pig prices showed an average selling price ranging from 47,000 to 53,000 VND/kg ($ 2.26 to $ 2.55 US/kg)

In February, the price of some animal feed ingredients decreased slightly from January: cassava 5,250 VND/kg ($ 0.25 US/kg) (down 2 per cent) and fish meal 19,425 VND/kg ($ 0.93 US/kg) (down 9.8 per cent). Prices of some raw materials increased slightly: corn 7,350 VND/kg ($ 0.35 US/kg) (up 2.9 per cent), lysine 56,700 VND/kg ($ 2.73 US/kg) (up 1.9 per cent). Other materials were stable: rice bran 7,455 VND/kg ($ 0.36 US/kg) and soybean meal 9,975 ($ 0.48/kg). Complete mixed feed for pigs from 60 kg to market weight was 9,282 VND/kg ($ 0.45/kg). This is up marginally from January.

Three major sources of feed ingredients for Viet Nam are Argentina (23.4 per cent), India (21.6 per cent) and the United States (10.5 per cent). Currently, India remains the largest source of imports, although the value of imports from all countries has decreased by 18.2 per cent over the same period last year (first 2 months of 2012). Italy and The United Arab Emirates have been showing strong growth in feed material exports to Viet Nam.

What to look for over the next few months

Currently, both Foot and Mouth and PRRS diseases have had little impact on the numbers of pigs marketed and or being found on the farm. In early 2012, the Veterinary Department had provided 85.6 million doses of vaccine from the national reserve fund to the provinces to control FMD. As well, incidences of PRRS have been minimal. The low incidence of these diseases, helps to stabilize the supply of market pigs and also helps farmers to increase the breeding stock retained for Spring/Summer farrowings.

Recently, consumer demand for pork has slowed down. In turn, the processors and supermarkets have provided scaled discounts to the consumer. For example, Viet Nam Industries Corporation Animal Products (Vissan) from the period to 15 March, has a 10 per cent reduction in the price of some specialty pork cuts (ham—83,000 VND/kg ($ 3.99 US/kg) down to 75,000 VND ($ 3.61 US/kg) and shoulders from 77,000 VND/kg ($ 3.70 US/kg) down to 69,000 VND/kg ($ 3.32US/kg). Each week, various pork cuts will be discounted up to 10 per cent to ensure the sale of most carcass cuts to the consumer.

Pig and pork prices have trended downwards since TET (Lunar New Year). Pig prices are currently around 47,500 VND/kg ($ 2.28 US/kg) for large scale farms. Small farmers report live pig prices averaging from 43,000 to 48,000 VND/kg ($ 2.07 to $ 2.31 US/kg). Lower market pig prices leads to lower pork prices. Another factor that reduces the cost of pork is that consumers have been listening to the news that farmers have been using “chemicals to get extra lean“. The exposure of the use of Clenbuterol in China, by Shuanghui (Shineway Meats) led to consumer reluctance to purchase pork. Since, TET, seafood, that can compete with pork, has lower prices and thus consumers can turn to seafood products. All these factors have hurt the consumption of pork.

According to Department of Livestock Bureau, until April or May, the price of pork in the market will be stable as there is a plentiful supply. (Mr. Hoang Kim Giao, director of the Department of Livestock Bureau said pork prices are on the decline and slow recovery back to pre-TET prices because supply outstrips demand)

Vissan has seen stability in the pig and pork prices for the past several weeks. Current prices should stay stable unless a disease epidemic occurs or if pigs start to move to the north region again like they did last year (price differential between the north and south part is close now, but last year, a shortage of pigs in the north drove the prices higher and in turn, the south brokers moved pigs to the north for better prices.)

As of 15 December, 2011, the preliminary estimate for pigs on the farm is around 27.1 million pigs. This is a 317,000 decrease (-0.73 per cent) over the same period in 2010 and up 755,000 since April 2011.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2011 increased by 17.9 per cent over 2010. The forecast for 2012 shows predictions of 0.5 to 0.7 per cent increases per month for CPI. In January, CPI was 1 per cent over the previous month and up 17.27 per cent over the same period last year in 2011(only a slight increase in prices of food and catering services with food groups increasing by 1.41 per cent, of which, 0.32 per cent was attributed to meat). This was during TET and usually prices, especially food increase substantially. The good news is the country was not under pressure because of rising food prices. The slight increase in food prices remained much lower than other lunar new year thanks to many years of active reserve and the provinces producing more food thus creating a plentiful supply for the market. February CPI was 1.37 per cent over the previous month and increased 2.38 per cent compared to December 2011. Over the same period in 2011, CPI increased 16.44 per cent in February. Food items increased 2.73 per cent over the previous month with the contributions of beef increasing by 9.66 per cent, the price of pork increased 3.36 per cent, poultry increased by 3.38 per cent and milk was up 1.92 per cent.