ShapeShapeauthorShapechevroncrossShapeShapeShapeGrouphamburgerhomeGroupmagnifyShapeShapeShaperssShape

Weekly Roberts Market Report

by 5m Editor
25 May 2011, at 6:15am

US - Hog futures were pulled lower by cattle and outside markets. Last Friday’s USDA report showed 545.8 mi lbs of pork in storage, down from March but up from a year ago.

LEAN HOGS on the CME closed sharply lower on Monday. The JUNE’11LH contract closed at $89.250/cwt; off $2.750/cwt and $4.350/cwt lower than a week ago. AUG’11LH futures closed at $90.500/cwt; off $3.000/cwt and $2.925/cwt lower than last report. Hog futures were pulled lower by cattle and outside markets. Last Friday’s USDA report showed 545.8 mi lbs of pork in storage, down from March but up from a year ago. USDA put the pork cutout at $95.52/cwt; down $1.09/cwt but $0.17/cwt higher than last report. Seasonally speaking, pork prices should move lower now that retailers have most of what they think they can sell for the Memorial Day holiday. In other news, South Korea is expected to extend tariff-free pork imports beyond the end of the first half of this year. According to HedgersEdge.com, the average packer margin was lowered $3.40/head to a negative $1.85/head based on the average buy of $69.50/cwt vs. the average breakeven of $68.81/cwt. The latest CME lean hog index was placed at $95.20; up $0.75 and $3.11 over than last report.

CORN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed up Monday with the exception of the July 2011 contract. The JULY’11 contract closed at $7.540/bu; down 5.5 ¢/bu but 56.75 ¢/bu higher than this time last week. The DEC’11 contract closed at $6.704/bu; up 4.0 ¢/bu and 35.0 ¢/bu over last report. Corn futures started lower on a strong dollar, lower crude oil, and unwinding bull spreads but recovered by the end of the day. The unwinding bull spreads held July back while boosting the new-crop December contract. Monetary trouble in Italy and Greece caused a spike in the value of the US. dollar. The continued wet weather that slowed planting and drowned a significant number of planted corn acres, as well as slow farmer selling drove prices near the end of trading. Rain seems to be the market maker. Funds cut net long positions in CBOT corn futures. Late Monday USDA put US. corn seedings at 79 per cent complete vs. 92 per cent this time last year and the 87 per cent five-year average. The US corn crop, according to USDA, was 45 per cent emerged vs. 69 per cent this time last year and the 59 per cent five-year average. Exports were steady as USDA put corn-inspected-for-export at 35.801 mi bu vs. expectations for 32-36 mi bu. Bullish pressure continues on corn stocks with upward channeling in chart signals. If you haven’t sold all you want to it would be a good consideration to hold off as prices look to retain some upward momentum.

SOYBEAN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed down on Monday with the exception of the November ’11 and the May ’12 contracts. The JULY’11 contract closed at $13.736/bu; off 6.5 ¢/bu but 47.25 ¢/bu over last report. NOV’11 soybean futures closed 0.25 ¢/bu higher at $13.506/bu but 9.75 ¢/bu lower than last report. Fund sold an estimated 4,000 lots further pressuring prices. Continued rain is slowing wheat and canola planting in the northern US. so more farmers there will reportedly turn to planting soybeans if they can get them in the ground in time. Lower crude oil, a higher US. dollar, and prospects that some land planted to corn will now be replanted to soybeans weighed on prices. Exports were encouraging with USDA placing soybeans-inspected-for-export at 7.77 mi bu vs. trade expectations for 5-7 mi bu. Trade volume was light. Some spot cash soybean prices remained firm on slow farmer selling. Fundamentally soybeans are on the brink of bearish influences. It would be a good idea to advance sales in the 2011 crop at this time.

WHEAT futures in Chicago (CBOT) closed up on Monday with the exception of the front month, July 2011. JULY’11 futures finished 3.5 ¢/bu lower at $8.030/bu but 66.75 ¢/bu higher than this time last week. The DEC’12 contract closed at $8.982/bu; up 5.25 ¢/bu and 57.75 ¢/bu over last report. Funds sold only 1,000 lots. While the firm dollar pressured CBOT wheat futures concerns about the developing crop propped up prices in deferred months. The global wheat crop is still being influenced by a host of weather issues that is seen as trimming production prospects. Cool, wet weather in the northern US. Plains is slowing crop plantings but is not seen as enough to really help reverse drought conditions. Canada is seeing its share of wet-planting-days while dry conditions are plaguing Europe, Germany, France, the Ukraine, western Russia, and especially England. Exports were bullish with USDA putting wheat- inspected-for-export at 30.159 mi bu vs. estimates for 27-30 mi bu. A producer survey of farmers in North Dakota showed they will not get all their intended wheat, corn, and canola acres seeded due to heavy rains and flooding and will plant either soybeans or sunflowers as an alternative. USDA put the US. winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition at 32 per cent, the same as last week and 34 per cent lower than this time last year. Fundamentally wheat prices remain bullish.