Anecdotal evidence we have received since that writing indicates that this year’s Canadian buyout program will not likely move culled sows to rendering but will instead buy the producer out of production for a specified time and stipulate that the sows will be sold on the cull sow market – much the same as the Cooperative Working Together US dairy herd buyouts have worked.

That, of course will INCREASE the supply of cull sows on the US-Canadian market during the prescribed liquidation period. Whether that will increase overall sow movement or simply supplant some US sows for a few weeks remains to be seen but we suspect it will be the latter unless sausage demand is particularly strong during the time period.

One good thing – it does not appear that Canadian producers are holding sows back right now, very likely because the Canadian program will be, as was last year’s, retroactive to some point earlier this year.