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Hog Outlook: Projection Of Pork Production for 2008 Is Another Record High

by 5m Editor
15 December 2007, at 11:42am

US Weekly Hog Outlook, 14th December 2007 - Weekly review of the US hog industry, written by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

USDA is now projecting pork production for 2007 at 21.849 billion pounds, up 3.7 percent from 2006 and a record high. The projection of pork production for 2008 by USDA is another record high of 22.25 billion pounds, up 1.8 percent from 2007. We believe there is a fairly high probability the USDA projection will be low.

Pork exports by the U.S. are now projected at 3.04 billion pounds for 2007, up 1.5 percent from 2006 and the sixteenth consecutive year for record-high exports. For 2008, USDA is projecting pork exports to be up 4.6 percent from 2007 at 3.8 billion pounds. If this occurs, it will be the seventeenth consecutive year for record high exports.

Supplies of pork per person for 2007 are projected at 50.7 pounds, up 1.4 pounds from 2006. For 2008, USDA is projecting pork consumption at 51 pounds, up 0.3 pound from 2007.

Total red meat and poultry consumption per person for 2007 is now projected at 221.1 pounds, down 0.5 pound from 2006. For 2008, the total red meat and poultry supplies per person are projected by USDA to be 221.1 pounds, the same as in 2007.

The average weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota was estimated at 270 pounds, down 0.1 pound from a week earlier but up 0.7 pound from a year earlier.

Barrow and gilt carcass weights under Federal Inspection have been one pound heavier than a year earlier most of the fall. For October, pork production was up 0.4 percent more than the number slaughtered.

The growth in weights this year is a little less than the average for October of 1998 to 2006, which was up 0.65 percent annually. The small reduction in weight growth is probably due, at least in part, to the higher feed prices and low hog prices.

The live hog prices Friday morning were $0.75 lower to $2.00 per cwt higher compared to a week earlier. The weighted average negotiated price Friday morning was $0.39 lower to $0.66 per cwt higher compared to seven days earlier.

The top live prices Friday morning for select markets were: Peoria $33.50 per cwt, St. Paul $35.00 per cwt and interior Missouri $36.50 per cwt.

Pork cutout per cwt of carcass was pushed at little higher this week. The cutout Thursday afternoon at $59.25 per cwt was up $0.30 per cwt from a week earlier. Loins at 69.26 per cwt were up $2.51 per cwt, Boston butts at $60.54 per cwt were up $3.59 per cwt, hams at $48.26 per cwt were down $3.72 per cwt, and bellies at $77.34 per cwt were up $1.64 per cwt from seven days earlier.

Slaughter continued above 2.3 million head this week with an estimate of 2365 thousand head under Federal Inspection, up 9.6 percent from a year earlier.

Pork exports in October were sharply higher showing a growth of 31.4 percent from last year and the highest monthly total of record.

2007 pork exports through October are now up 2.6 percent from 2006. The odds are now very high for 2007 to be the sixteenth consecutive year for a record export.

5m Editor