Ron Plain, University of Missouri economist, calculates the breeding herd is a half percent larger than a year ago, and he thinks the total herd is 2.8 percent bigger than on September 1, 2006.

"I expect USDA will make some upward revisions in their previous inventory estimates," he says. "Hog slaughter during June-August was roughly 1.2 percent higher than expected based on USDA's June Hogs and Pigs Report. Half of the difference was due to higher imports of slaughter hogs from Canada, which were up 27.7 percent. Slaughter of U.S. raised hogs was 0.6 percent higher than the June report implied. Either more pigs were born or fewer died than expected."

Pork producers told USDA for the June report that they'd up June-August farrowings by 1.6 percent over a year earlier and that they'd boost September-November farrowings 0.4 percent.