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Weekly Roberts Report

by 5m Editor
8 August 2007, at 8:37am

US - Agricultural US Commodity Market Report by Mike Roberts, Commodity Marketing Agent, Virginia Tech.

LEAN HOGS on the CME took a plunge on Monday with one exception. AUG’07LH futures closed at $74.575/cwt, up $0.200/cwt and $1.532/cwt higher than last Monday’s close amid light trading and short covering. The AUG’07LH contract expires on August 14. The OCT’07LH contract closed at $75.050/cwt, off $2.550/cwt but $4.250/cwt higher than a week ago. Prices rose last week amid expectations that China would be buying a lot more U.S. pork. However, the market came down today on profit taking and ideas that prices got too high last week. Speculative and commercial selling mostly took out good gains made last Friday. More declines are expected for October as it is not often that hog prices are higher in October than August. However, cash markets are strong amid good packer demand despite falling retail pork-product prices and negative profit margins. Cash hogs traded steady to $1/cwt higher on Monday. The average pork packer cutout margin for Monday was a negative $6.25/head, worse off by $1.60/head from Friday and worse off by $5.75/head from one week ago, according to HedgersEdge.com. USDA placed Monday’s hog slaughter at 341,000 head, compared to 391,000 last week at this time and 337,000 head one year ago. Also on Monday, USDA revised Friday’s hog slaughter to 393,000 head, down from 398,000 and Saturday’s to 12,000 head, down from 14,000 head. USDA estimated the weekly hog slaughter at 1.985 million head vs. 1.977 million head last week and 1.887 million head one year ago. USDA on Friday reported the pork carcass cutout at $70.95/cwt, down $0.28/cwt. The latest CME Lean Hog Index was reported off $0.24/cwt at $73.01/cwt. Cash sellers should still try and push hog sales as soon as they are finished in this hot weather. Near term corn needs should be priced at this time.

CORN on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed mixed on Monday. The SEPT’07 contract finished at $3.256/bu, off 0.6¢/bu from last close. The DEC’07 contract, still the most active, finished at $3.430/bu, even with last Friday’s close. Sell-stops kicked in for the DEC’07 contract after it dipped under the 10-day moving average. However, spillover-strength from wheat helped corn rally late in the day. Much needed moisture in this kernel-making-phase fell on the U.S. Corn Belt. This will help stabilize the crop that has been suffering of late. USDA’s crop-condition report was posted late this afternoon showing what the market had factored in, a crop rating of good-to-excellent of 56%, down 2 points from last week. Some floor sources stated they expected a much lower rating before the weekend rains. Corn inspected for export was reported at 24.517 million bu according to USDA. This was below range estimates of between 34-38 million bu. CFTC’s Commodity of Traders report showed large speculators growing net long positions in CBOT corn to 94,251, about 5,000 bu. Cash corn in the U.S. Midwest was mixed to steady on Monday amid quiet sales. Cash corn in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic States was steady to stronger ranging 2¢/bu– 4¢/bu higher amid slow farmer sales. Cash sellers having priced up to 50%-60% of next year’s production are in a good mood, if their crop is making. This is a pure weather market now. Adequate rain will depress prices; dry weather will provide more strength. Whatever the weather … prices look to be somewhat volatile.

SOYBEAN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ended lower across the board on Monday. The AUG’07 contract closed at $8.260/bu, off 13.0 ¢/bu. NOV’07 futures were again the most active, closing down 11.0¢/bu from Friday at $8.500/bu but 2.4¢/bu higher than last Monday’s close. Rally in wheat buoyed soybeans. As with corn, good rains played a vital role in the outlook for the crop and market trading today. Soybeans were much in need of rain to stop the crop condition skid. August is a critical yield-making-month for soybeans. USDA rated the crop 56% good-to-excellent, down 2 points from last week’s 58%. The market expected a 1-3 point decline. USDA also reported that 10.5 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export vs. expectations of between 5-10 million bu. Cash soybeans in the U.S. Midwest were steady due to slow farmer sales. In the U.S. Mid-Atlantic State, soybeans were moving slower amid good opening bids for local supplies. Monday’s opening bids were 7¢/bu– 10¢/bu higher with many places offering 8.11¢/bu -8.31¢/bu for new crop soybeans. CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report showed large speculators cutting net long positions in CBOT beans for the week ended July 31. It might be a good idea to price up to 70% of the ’07 crop at this time.

WHEAT futures in Chicago (CBOT) rose over 2% to eleven-year highs on Monday. SEPT’07 wheat futures closed at $6.664/bu, 14.0¢/bu higher than last Friday and 29.0¢/bu higher than last week at this time. The JULY’08 contract finished at $5.586/bu, up 7.2¢/bu but 25.8¢/bu lower than a week ago. Global stocks are lower while the September contract defies fundamentals to go even higher. September’s nine-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) registered at 13.03 at the close. A contract is considered oversold at 30 or below and overbought at 70 or above. Moves to 30 or below usual suggest the pool of sellers is being exhausted. As with other chart signals, it should be noted that RIS indicators become somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If enough traders are monitoring the signals, they are reluctant to step up and sell an already oversold market. However, on the other hand, if the fundamental supply and demand situation changes significantly (like we’ve seen with the corn-for-ethanol demand) and continues to change, the market will defy the RSI signal. Current supply/demand fundamentals in place at this time show already short global stocks dwindling amid a growing world population and prospects for further shortages of wheat on the horizon due to natural disasters worldwide. One analyst stated, “This has all the hallmarks of “panic buying.” That remains to be seen as the market speculates. U.S. wheat inspected for export was posted at 25.1 million bu vs. expectations for 16-20 million bu, according to the USDA. Exports showed good potential as Morocco tendered an offer for nearly 1 million tonnes (3.7 million bu) of soft wheat and Egypt stated it wanted to buy 55,000-60,000 tonnes (2-2.2 million bu) of wheat for an early September ’07 delivery. USDA placed the U.S. winter wheat harvest at 94% complete, ahead of the 5-year average of 91% this time last year. U.S. spring wheat is 29% harvested, ahead of its 5-year average of 21%, according to USDA. Funds bought 3,500 contracts while volume on the CBOT was placed at 107,381 futures and 14,454 options. The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report showed large speculators expanding bullish positions in CBOT wheat for the week ended July 31, 2007. Cash bids for wheat in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic States were very firm ranging 8¢/bu–11¢/bu higher. Producers should consider not having any wheat in storage at this time and pricing up to 25% of the ’08 crop.



5m Editor