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Crop yield forecast

by 5m Editor
28 July 2007, at 9:09am

UK - The European Commission has released its annual crop yield forecast for Europe. The central prediction is that the 2007 total cereal harvest will be 276m tonnes or 1.6 percent below the average of the last five years with central and eastern Europe losing out the most.

Across the European Union, the growing season trend has been exceptional with mild winter and hot spring temperatures boosting crop growth. Northern regions have been particularly hit with intensive rain while heat waves and drought spells have had a detrimental effect in eastern countries, especially around the Black Sea region.

In Romania, for example, the predictions are that wheat yield will be 20.1 percent below average, while in Bulgaria barley yield will be down 14.6 percent and for maize the decrease could be as much as 40 percent.

In Hungary, maize yield will be 6.7 percent lower, soft wheat yields will be 7.1 percent lower in the Czech and down 8.9 percent in the Slovak Republic.

Looking at individual crops across the European Union-27 over the past five years, the latest 2007 yield forecasts are:

  • Soft wheat: (±0%)
  • Durum wheat (+13.5)
  • Barley (+3.4%)
  • Grain maize (-0.8%)
  • Rape seed (-5.1%)
  • Sunflower (-3.4%)
  • Potato (+8.1%)
  • Sugar beet (+4.2%)

The total European Union land cover used for cereal production in 2007 is estimated to have decreased by 2.3 percent. Whereas 276m tonnes less than the five year average will be produced, this still represents approximately 10m tonnes more production than 2006 figures.

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5m Editor