Farm-Scape, Episode 1666

Despite a 14 percent US anti-dumping duty on imported Canadian live hogs, a market analyst with Sask Pork predicts continued strong prices well into 2005.

Sask Pork Industry and Policy Analyst Brad Marceniuk says, with avian flu in chicken and BSE in cattle having no doubt prompted some consumers to shift to eating more pork, strong demand has clearly been the story for 2004.

"Continued strong demand for pork and stable slaughter hog numbers in the United States have helped maintain very strong hog prices in North America.

Current hog prices are well above long term averages.

The current SPI index 100 hog price is in the low 160 dollar range per 100 kilograms. The 14 percent dumping duty on live hog exports continues to cost Canadian hog producers about 18 to 20 dollars for slaughter market hogs sold into the United States.

While domestic hog prices have been relatively stable, we've started to see the basis widening between Canadian hog prices and US hog prices. Western Canadian hog packers have started discounting cash hog sales verses contract hog sales causing some widening in the basis.

Contract prices appear to be holding pretty stable against the US hog prices. We have noticed some changes in the Canadian cash hog prices.

Any changes regarding dumping duties to the US will affect hog prices. The final decision on the dumping duty is set for some time in March of 2005. Saskatchewan hog market prices are expected to average about 140 to 150 dollars per hundred kilograms for the first quarter of 2005 and the second quarter of 2005.

Continued strong demand for pork and static US hog slaughter numbers will be needed to maintain these strong hog prices into 2005."

Marceniuk says, while the Canadian dollar has appreciated slightly over the last month putting some downward pressure on Canadian live hog prices, the over all impact of the dollar on prices has been relatively small.

For Farmscape.Ca, I'm Bruce Cochrane.