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July Pig Crop Down 3 Percent

by 5m Editor
1 September 2003, at 12:00am

US - August 2003 Hogs and Pigs report from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. This is the last "Monthly Hogs and Pigs" report.

USDA August Hogs and Pigs Report

The July 2003 U.S. pig crop at 8.39 million head, was 3 percent below the previous year. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 943 thousand head, 3 percent below last year. The average pigs per litter for July increased to 8.90, compared to 8.89 last year.

The U.S. inventory of sows and gilts on August 1, 2003, was 5.75 million head, down 3 percent from August 1, 2002. U.S. sows and gilts bred during July totaled 1.12 million head, down 2 percent from the previous year.

US Monthly Pig Crop

Report Tables





Special Note

Monthly farrowing and pig crop estimates are preliminary and may be revised in the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Reports. Various factors can require revisions, such as sample variability, difference in reporting time-frame (monthly vs. quarterly), and pre-weaning and post-weaning death loss. Please refer to the Revision Policy on Page 3 of this report for more information.

This is the last "Monthly Hogs and Pigs" report. NASS thanks the hog and pig producers and industry for their assistance in the publication of swine data. The next "Quarterly Hogs and Pigs" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on September 26, 2003.


Survey Procedures: A random sample of 2,700 U.S. producers from contractors to independent producers were used to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all breeding and farrowing operations, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected during the first-half of the month by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operations were asked to provide information on sow and gilt inventories as of the first of the month, sows and gilts bred during the previous month, sows and gilts farrowed during the previous month, and the pig crop from these litters.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous monthly estimates are made during the quarterly report. These revisions are to improve month to month, and quarter to quarter relationships. In December, estimates for all months and quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations with sow and gilt inventory are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

Commentary on the report - Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes

Ron Plain
Ron Plain

USDA's August hogs and pigs report was right in line with trade expectations.

The number of sows farrowed during July was 2.6% smaller than in July of 2002. This is slightly fewer farrowings than implied by the summer farrrowing intentions in the June quarterly report (down 2.1%). Pigs per litter in July (8.9) were up 0.1% from a year ago, which is a smaller increase than the average for the previous six months (up 0.6%). USDA estimated the July 2003 pig crop to be 2.5% smaller than July 2002. That's a significant drop, but it's the smallest decline since January. USDA said the inventory of sows and gilts held for breeding was 3.2% smaller than August 1, 2002 and that producers bred 2.2% fewer sows and gilts during July 2003 than a year ago. Both numbers are down more than one might expect given that the June quarterly report predicted fall farrowings would be down only 0.8%.

The February pig crop (96.2%) implied that August 2003 slaughter would be down 3% or so from August 2002. Preliminary data indicate daily hog slaughter was down 1.4% in August. It would have been down by more than 3% were it not for a 40% increase in the number of hogs imported from Canada. The March and April pig crops (96.4% and 96.1% of a year ago, respectively) imply that September and October hog slaughter will be 2% or so below that of 12 months earlier, assuming continuing increases in imports of hogs and pigs from Canada. Terminal market barrows and gilts averaged $26.28/cwt last September and $28.87/cwt in October 2002. We are expecting September-October 2003 hog slaughter to be down 1-2% and live prices to average in the low to mid $30s this year.

The May-June pig crop (96.8%) suggests November-December hog slaughter will be down 2-3% or so compared to a year ago. Prices averaged only $28.35/cwt for terminal market barrows and gilts in November-December 2002. There is a good chance fourth quarter slaughter will be down this year despite a continued increase in hog imports from Canada. Look for live hog prices in the final two months of 2003 will average in the low $30/cwt at the terminal markets.

This was USDA's final monthly hogs and pigs report. USDA found that most hog producers don't like filling-out inventory surveys every month. Consequently, the response rate for these monthly reports has been lower than for the quarterly survey. USDA will be returning to the traditional quarterly surveys in March, June, September and December. They will release their September quarterly survey on Friday September 26.

 

 SowsFarrowed Pigs/ --Pig Crop-- Females Bred
 000s %YrAgo Litter 000s %YrAgo 000s %YrAgo
 ------------ ------ ------------ ------------
Jul03 943 97.4 8.90 8393 97.5 1120 97.8
Jun03 926 96.5 8.91 8250 96.6 1135 97.2
May03 941 95.8 8.91 8387 96.9 1140 97.4
Apr03 942 95.8 8.88 8365 96.1 1145 97.6
Mar03 938 95.9 8.85 8301 96.4 1135 96.1
Feb03 928 96.0 8.86 8220 96.2 1125 97.3
Jan03 931 98.4 8.82 8211 99.4 1150 96.6
Dec02 908 98.4 8.75 7943 99.4 1165 97.6
Nov02 926 96.5 8.83 8176 96.3 1170 97.5
Oct02 940 97.6 8.83 8300 97.4 1160 96.9
Sep02 951 98.4 8.85 8416 99.2 1145 97.8
Aug02 959 100.5 8.92 8554 100.7 1120 98.9
Jul02 968 100.7 8.89 8609 101.0 1145 99.1
Jun02 960 99.4 8.89 8537 100.1 1168 97.6
May02 982 102.5 8.81 8651 101.5 1170 100.4
Apr02 983 103.1 8.85 8700 102.6 1173 100.3
Mar02 978 102.0 8.80 8608 101.2 1181 100.5
Feb02 967 102.8 8.83 8543 103.3 1156 101.2
Jan02 946 104.4 8.73 8257 104.7 1190 101.8
Dec01 923 102.4 8.66 7994 102.4 1194 100.8
Nov01 960 103.4 8.84 8488 103.3 1200 102.7
Oct01 963 102.4 8.85 8523 102.5 1197 102.0
Sep01 966 99.6 8.78 8481 98.9 1171 101.0
Aug01 954 99.5 8.90 8491 100.0 1133 NA
Jul01 961 99.1 8.87 8522 99.3 1155 NA
Jun01 963 100.3 8.85 8526 100.6 1197 NA
May01 958 100.3 8.90 8525 100.7 1165 NA
Apr01 953 99.7 8.90 8481 100.2 1170 NA
Mar01 959 98.5 8.87 8503 98.4 1175 NA
Feb01 941 97.5 8.79 8273 97.9 1142 NA
Jan01 906 99.5 8.71 7887 98.9 1169 NA 

Source: 29th August 2003 Monthly Hogs and Pigs Report - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service and Ron Plain and Glen Grimes University of Missouri

5m Editor