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Weekly Purcell Report

by 5m Editor
22 July 2003, at 12:00am

US - Agricultural US Commodity Market Report by Wayne D. Purcell, Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech.



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The situation is relatively stable in the cash hog market with carcass-based prices in the national direct market averaging slightly above $59 on Monday afternoon.

That means the live-based price is continuing to stay in the mid-to-low-$40s and to offer profitable prices for all but high-cost producers.

Hold short hedges in this market because we don¹t see any sign of base-building yet on the August lean hog contract.

After a contract high at $69.75 back on June 9, this market closed at $61.17 on Monday, and is trading about flat in Tuesday's session.

I would like to see a modest corrective rally to the upside here and leave us a low against which we might consider buying back short hedges when it dips again, but we don't have that type of pattern yet on the charts.

I would hold short hedges and be patient in this market until we see some more definitive signs that it is trying to build at least a short-term bottom.


5m Editor