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Weekly Purcell Report

by 5m Editor
2 July 2003, at 12:00am

US - Agricultural US Commodity Market Report by Wayne D. Purcell, Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech.



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In the hog complex, I see this July and other up-front contracts in lean hogs continuing to work lower and make a correction of the huge run-up that we saw from down toward $56.50 on the July up toward the $69.30 area during late March, April, May and into early June.

This market may move down toward the $62 level, giving what we are seeing on the fundamental side, before we see this correction completed.

I would hold short hedges until you see some signs that a correction is complete.

One thing to watch for is a close above the relatively steep trend line that you could sketch on this July hog contract or the August, depending on which one you are watching, and use that as an indicator that the short-run correction down is complete and the market will try to rally again.


5m Editor