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Weekly Purcell Report

by 5m Editor
14 May 2003, at 12:00am

US - Agricultural US Commodity Market Report by Wayne D. Purcell, Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech.



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The June hog contract is about the only lean hog futures contract that is not making new highs. Monday's price pushed up into an old chart gap with that gap having been left in late 2002.

We have seen no correction to the downside since this June contract started the current rally at about the $57 level in early April. I would continue to be an aggressive short hedger and seller in this market if June can push up toward its late 2002 contract at $66.90.

At a very minimum we will get a substantial correction back to the downside and give the selective hedging approach a chance to generate revenues before this market will turn and try to take out its high.

Longer term, the pork complex continues to look decent with less burdensome supplies than we had earlier thought, and I would not be anxious to hedge hogs out through the end of the calendar year and into 2004 just yet.


5m Editor