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Weekly Purcell Report

by 5m Editor
12 March 2003, at 12:00am

US - Agricultural US Commodity Market Report by Wayne D. Purcell, Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech.



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On the April lean hog futures, producers who have done nothing in this market have a very apparent downtrend line that they can sketch across the early January and late February highs.

This market seems to be finding buying support every time it dips down toward the $50 level in the April, which corresponds with some lows that go back into October.

Cash markets are starting to climb a bit higher. Weighted average prices on the carcass-based cash market are up around $47 and better in Tuesday morning trade, and that is $1-$2 better than we have been generally seeing across the past several weeks.

I would not lift short hedges until we do see some buying support coming around the $50 level on the April. That would be a clue to think about buying back short hedges on futures out through the summer months. Alternatively, you can sketch the downtrend line on the April and hold short hedges until we see a close above that line.


5m Editor