Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

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USDA Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Report: March 2008

U.S. Hog Inventory up 7 Percent

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 2008 was 65.9 million head. This was up 7 percent from March 1, 2007, but down 2 percent from December 1, 2007.

Breeding inventory, at 6.14 million head, was up less than 1 percent from last year, but down slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 59.8 million head, was up 7 percent from last year, but down 2 percent from last quarter.

The December 2007-February 2008 pig crop, at 28.1 million head, was up 6 percent from 2007 and up 9 percent from 2006. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.05 million head, up 5 percent from 2007 and up 7 percent from 2006. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 9.21 for the December 2007-February 2008 period, compared to 9.09 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.50 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.30 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory: March 2008

U.S. hog producers intend to have 3.05 million sows farrow during the March-May 2008 quarter, up slightly from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2007, and up 4 percent from 2006.

Intended farrowings for June-August 2008, at 3.04 million sows, are down 2 percent from 2007 but up 4 percent from 2006.

The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 40 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 39 percent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 2007 through December 2007 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, an adjustment of slightly more than 2 percent was made to the September 1, 2007 total inventory along with an adjustment of slightly larger than 4 percent to the June-August 2007 pig crop.

Adjustments of less than 3 percent were made to the December 1, 2007 total inventory and September-November 2007 pig crop.

What It All Means - Expert Commentary

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes Grimes & Plain on the Hogs and Pigs Report USDA’s March Hogs and Pigs inventory report was substantially more bearish than the average of the trade estimates.

Dr Mike Brumm, Brumm Swine Consultancy Commentary: Dr Mike Brumm on latest Hogs and Pigs Report By the time this commentary is distributed, most readers of the commentary will already have read other comments on the lack of reduction in the US breeding herd numbers and the massive numbers of pigs in the kept for market category. Many have questioned the ability of USDA to capture the rapidly changing structure of the US industry.

Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc USDA Report Called Ugly If US and Canadian hog producers needed any more cold water to shock them into full-scale contraction, Friday’s Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report from USDA ought to do it, says Economist Steve Meyer.

Jim Long US March Hogs and Pigs Report Offers No Panacea for What Ails Us The USDA March Hogs and Pigs Report was released last Friday, writes Jim Long. Unfortunately, it offers at first glance little positive news for our industry.

Professor John Lawrence & Shane Ellis, Iowa State University John Lawrence and Shane Ellis on the March 2008 Hog and Pig Report The March Hog and Pig Report was released March 28 and reports a national inventory of just less than 66 million hogs, up 6.5% from this time last year.

Professor Darrel Good, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Weekly Outlook: Three Friendly Reports For Corn The USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, quarterly Grain Stocks report, and annual Prospective Plantings report all appeared to be supportive for corn prices.

In The News - What The Media Says

• Pork Futures: Hogs Fall - FXstreet.com

Graph Data from the Report

U.S. Quarterly Litter Rate December-February 2008

U.S. Pigs per Litter
By Size of Operation, December-February 2008

U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed December-February 2008

U.S. Quarterly Pig Crop September-November

U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
December 1

U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
March 1

U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
June 1

U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
September 1

Reliability of December Hogs and Pigs Estimates