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USDA Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Report: June 2006

by 5m Editor
3 July 2006, at 12:00am

This quarter's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report from the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. The article provides the report text and graphs, and helps explain what it all means. Link also to the full PDF report.

Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

USDA Quarterly Report: June 2006 What It All Means - Expert Commentary In The News - What The Media Says Graph Data From The Report Hog Inventories by State (external link - select State and navigate to file)

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 27 page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, Click Here

US Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Inventory: June 2006

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on June 1, 2006 was 60.9 million head. This was up slightly from June 1, 2005 and up 1 percent from March 1, 2006.

Breeding inventory, at 6.06 million head, was up 1 percent from both last year and from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 54.9 million head, was up slightly from last year and up 2 percent from last quarter.

The March-May 2006 pig crop, at 26.3 million head, was up 1 percent from 2005 and up 3 percent from 2004. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.90 million head, up 1 percent from both 2005 and 2004. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd.

The average pigs saved per litter was 9.08 for the March-May 2006 period, compared to 9.02 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.60 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.20 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

US Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Inventory: June 1


U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.92 million sows farrow during the June-August 2006 quarter, up slightly from the actual farrowings in 2005, but up 1 percent from 2004. Intended farrowings for September-November 2006, at 2.92 million sows, are up one percent from both 2005 and 2004.

The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 38 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, down from 40 percent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for June 2005 through March 2006 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, small adjustments of less than one-half of one percent were made to the December 2005 total inventory, March 2006 total inventory and to the September-November 2005 pig crop.


What It All Means - Expert Commentary

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Mike Brumm Professor Mike Brumm, University of Nebraska
June 2006 USDA Hogs and Pigs Report Commentary
As other commentators have already noted, there weren’t many surprises in the June 1, 2006 USDA Hogs and Pigs report released on June 30, at least as the report related to the overall numbers of pigs in the US breeding herd and the kept for market category.
However, the report does spell out where modest expansion is occurring and where changes in the mix of breeding and market inventories continue to occur.
Continue reading this report here

Ron Plain Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes
Hogs and Pigs Report - June 2006
The June 1 Hogs and Pigs report came in a little more bullish for prices than the trade estimates. The total number of hogs and pigs on farms June 2 was at 100.3% of a year ago. The average of the trade estimates was 100.9%.
The number of pigs kept for breeding at 101.4% compared to the trade estimate average of 101.3%. The market herd was at 100.2% compared to an average of the trade estimates of 100.9%.
Continue reading this report here

Shane Ellis Shane Ellis, Iowa State University
June Hog and Pig Report
The national swine herd continues to increase above inventories of a year ago, reports Shane Ellis in his Quarterly Hogs and Pigs commentary. Total hog numbers were up a third percent from a year ago at just under 61 million head. Breeding hog numbers also increased 1.4 percent and now number over 6 million head.
Among market hog inventories total numbers increased 0.2 percent, while the inventory of hogs less than 180 pounds increased, the number of hogs weighing more than 180 pound inventory decreased by 1.8 percent. Table 1 is a summary of the June Hog and Pig report and how swine inventories have changed in from a year ago.
Continue reading this report here

Chris Hurt Chris Hurt, Purdue University
Hog Profits Threatened by Corn Profits
“Not much change” is the theme of the latest Hogs and Pigs inventory report from USDA. Producers continue to avoid expansion in the face of strong profits over the past two years, reports Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University. The industry is expected to continue to operate at modest profits through the first-half of 2007, but the potential for higher corn prices appears to be the biggest threat to this thin profit potential.
Continue reading this report here
Steve Meyer Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc
USDA Report a Yawner - but I'll take it!
USDA's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report was somewhat of a non-event for the third straight quarter. Not that a non-event is a bad thing. After more than two years of very good profits, the risk on these reports is definitely to the upside.
I'll never forget the sinking feeling I had in June 1998 when the numbers were huge and one could see headlights of the train coming. Woody Hayes was right - boring victories are far more valuable than exciting defeats.
Continue reading this report here


In The News - What The Media Says


Graph Data from the Report

US Quarterly Litter Rate: March - May



US Pigs Per Litter
By Size of Operation: March - May 2006



US Quarterly Sows Farrowed: March - May



US Quarterly Pig Crop: March - May


March 1 Hog Inventory and Market Hogs (US)



June 1 Hog Inventory and Market Hogs (US)



September 1 Hog Inventory and Market Hogs (US)



December 1 Hog Inventory and Market Hogs (US)



Reliability of June 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates

Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 10,000 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. During the first half of June data were collected from about 8,000 operations, 81 percent of the total sample. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of June 1.

Estimation Procedures: These hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each field office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year census of agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 60.9 million head by more than 1.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.7 percent.

Source: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, June 2006 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service