Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes: USDA Quarterly report: June 2004
What it all means
Graph data from the report Hog Inventories by State (external link)

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 24 page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, Click Here

US Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Inventory: June 2004

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on June 1, 2004 was 60.1 million head. This was 1 percent above both June 1, 2003 and March 1, 2004.

Breeding inventory, at 5.91 million head, was down 2 percent from June 1, 2003, and down slightly from last quarter. Market hog inventory, at 54.2 million head, was 1 percent above both last year and last quarter.

The March - May 2004 U.S. pig crop, at 25.5 million head, was down less than one-half of one percent from 2003, and down 2 percent from 2002. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.86 million head, 1 percent below last year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 8.93 for the March - May 2004 period, compared to 8.88 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.70 for operations with 1-99 hogs to 9.00 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.87 million sows farrow during the June-August 2004 quarter, 1 percent below the actual farrowings during the same period in both 2003 and 2002. Intended farrowings for September-November 2004, at 2.84 million sows, are down slightly from the same period in 2003, but up slightly from the same period in 2002.

The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 38 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 35 percent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for June 2003 through March 2004 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review small adjustments were made within inventory components for March 2004. No adjustment was made to March 2004 total inventory.

What it all means?

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain and Glen Grimes
Read what Ron Plain and Glen Grimes make of the June 1 Hogs and Pigs Report

Chris Hurt
Read what Chris Hurt, Extension Economist at the Purdue University has to say about the June 1 Hogs and Pigs Report

Mike Brumm
Dr Mike Brumm, Extension Swine Specialist, University of Nebraska comments on the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report.

Graph Data from the Report

Reliability of June 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates

Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 11,600 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 9,550 operations, 82 percent of the total sample, during the first-half of June by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of June 1.

Estimation Procedures: These hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 60.1 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.9 percent.

Source: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, June 2004 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service