Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes: USDA Quarterly report: December 2003
What it all means
Graph data from the report Hog Inventories by State For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 24 page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, Click Here

US Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Inventory: December 2003

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on December 1, 2003, was 60.0 million head. This was 1 percent above December 1, 2002, but slightly below September 1, 2003.

Breeding inventory, at 5.97 million head, was down 1 percent from December 1, 2002, but 1 percent above last quarter. Market hog inventory, at 54.1 million head, was 1 percent above last year, but slightly below last quarter.

The September - November 2003 U.S. pig crop, at 25.3 million head, was 2 percent more than 2002, but 1 percent below 2001.

Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.84 million head, 1 percent above last year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd.

The average pigs saved per litter was 8.93 for the September - November period, compared to 8.83 last year.

Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.40 for operations with 1-99 hogs to 9.10 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

What it all means?

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain and Glen Grimes
Read what Ron Plain and Glen Grimes make of the December 1 Hogs and Pigs Report

Graph Data from the Report

Reliability of December 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates

Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 14,400 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 11,900 operations, 83 percent of the total sample, during the first-half of December by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of December 1.

Estimation Procedures: These hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 60.0 million head by more than 1.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.8 percent.

Source: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, December 2003 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service