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USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report - September 2009 [Updated]

by 5m Editor
25 September 2009, at 12:00am

This quarter's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report from the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 24 page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, please Click Here

USDA Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Report: September 2009

US Hog Inventory down Two Per Cent

US inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September 2009 was 66.6 million head. This was down 2 per cent from 1 September 2008 but up 1 per cent from 1 June 2009.

Breeding inventory, at 5.87 million head, was down 3 per cent from last year and down 2 per cent from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 60.8 million head, was down 2 per cent from last year but up 1 per cent from last quarter.

The June-August 2009 pig crop, at 28.8 million head, was down 2 per cent from 2008 and down 1 per cent from 2007. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.97 million head, down 4 per cent from 2008 and down 5 per cent from 2007. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 per cent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 9.70 for the June-August 2009 period, compared to 9.51 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.40 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.80 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

US hog producers intend to have 2.94 million sows farrow during the September-November 2009 quarter, down 3 per cent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2008, and down 8 per cent from 2007. Intended farrowings for December 2009-February 2010, at 2.93 million sows, are down 3 per cent from 2009 and down 5 per cent from 2008.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 46 per cent of the total US hog inventory, up from 43 per cent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2008 through June 2009 were reviewed using slaughter, death loss and current import and export data. Based on this review, adjustments of less than one percent were made to the March 2009 and June 2009 total inventory. An adjustment of less than two percent was made to the December 2008-February 2009 pig crop.

Special Note

The market hogs and pigs weight groups will be changing beginning with the December 2009 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs release. The market weight group under 60 pounds will be changed to under 50 pounds, and the market weight group 60-119 pounds will be changed to 50-119 pounds. The 120-179 pounds and 180 pounds and over weight groups will remain the same. These changes align NASS market hogs and pigs weight groups more closely with international trade data. Statistics Canada is making similar changes to the Canadian market hogs and pigs categories. This will allow for a more uniform analysis of the US and Canadian hog inventories.

Estimates will be published in the December 2009 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs release for the new weight groups dating back to March of 2008 at the US and State level using slaughter data and current import and export data. These estimates will allow for historical analysis of the new weight groups and will provide a point of reference for proceeding quarters.


What It All Means - Expert Commentary

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes
Grimes & Plain on the Hogs and Pigs Report
The September report came in a little more positive than the trade estimates, write Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes.


Steve Meyer Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc
Hogs & Pigs Report Encouraging
Friday’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report indicates the pace of breeding herd liquidation may be quickening, generally agreeing with pre-report estimates, writes Steve Meyer.

Jim Long Jim Long
Pork Commentary: Light at the End of the Tunnel
Since the first of June the USDA data indicates a large decrease in breeding stock of 93,000 (we predicted 100,000) which is just over 7,000 a week, writes Jim Long.

Shane Ellis Shane Ellis, Iowa State University
September Hog and Pig Report Summary
The US swine breeding herd now numbers 5.87 million head, down 2.3 per cent from last year, writes Shane Ellis.

Chris Hurt Chris Hurt, Purdue University
Hog Producers See First Signs of Dawning
Chris Hurt comments on the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report

-->More to follow soon...


In The News - What The Media Says

More to follow soon....

Graph Data from the Report

US Quarterly Litter Rate
June-August

US Pigs per Litter
By Size of Operation, June-August 2009

US Quarterly Sows Farrowed
June-August

US Quarterly Pig Crop
June-August

US Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
1 March

US Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
1 June

US Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
1 September

US Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
1 December

Reliability of 1 September Hogs and Pigs Estimates

To review this information, including the Survey Procedures, Estimation Procedures, Revision Policy and Reliability, please download the PDF.

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, September 2009 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 2009