Pig outlook — US lean hog futures still trending higher

Analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news

1 March 2024

4 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

Europe

North America

Asia

April lean hog futures prices remain in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. That means the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to higher. After moving $1.00 higher for consecutive days last week, the CME lean hog index has shown lesser gains so far this week, with the latest index rising 32 cents to $79.78 (as of Feb. 26). The premium April hog futures hold to the cash index has narrowed in the past week as futures have seen profit-taking. It is likely retailers will actively feature pork, mostly hams, into Easter. That will continue to provide strength in the wholesale pork market.

China authorizes pork imports from three Russian enterprises

China’s customs service authorized three Russian enterprises to ship pork to the country from Feb. 28, Russian agricultural watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor said. Pork products packaged after that date of registration will be allowed for delivery into China.

USDA begins trial allowing higher swine line speeds until 2025

USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has initiated a new time-limited trial (TLT) allowing certain slaughter facilities to operate at swine line speeds up to 1,106 head per hour (hph) and higher speeds until Jan. 15, 2025. The trial involves on-site visits, worker interviews, and observations of plant operations to assess safety and efficiency. Participating establishments must meet original TLT criteria and provide relevant data. Worker safety agreements with unions or representatives remain mandatory, with documentation required quarterly. Results from the study will inform potential rulemaking on line speeds. The TLT was launched in November 2021 following legal actions regarding the New Swine Slaughter Inspection System (NSIS). However, a third-party evaluation found insufficient data on the impact of faster line speeds on worker safety, leading to a 90-day extension granted in November 2023.

USDA cold storage report friendly compared to seasonal tendencies

USDA’s cold storage report showed US beef stocks declined contra-seasonally during January, while pork stocks rose less than average. Frozen beef stocks at the end of January totaled 475.4 million lbs., down 4.9 million lbs. from December, whereas the five-year average was a 2.9-million-lb. increase during the month. Beef stocks fell 59.8 million lbs. (11.2%) from January 2023 and were 40.1 million lbs. (7.8%) below the five-year average. Pork stocks rose 40.6 million lbs. during January to 468.0 million pounds. The five-year average was a 48.6-million-lb. increase during the month. Pork stocks declined 51.1 million lbs. (9.8%) from January 2023 and were 51.8 million lbs. (10.0%) lower than the five-year average.

China’s sow herd liquidation continues

China’s sow herd totaled 40.67 million head at the end of January, down 1.8% on a monthly basis and 6.9% below year-ago, according to ag ministry data. Hog slaughter jumped 28.6% from year-ago during January to 37.25 million head, though that was down 6.4% from the previous month.

USDA set to announce an additional rule under the Packers and Stockyards Act (P&SA)

The announcement follows completion of the Office of Management and Budget's review of a final rule from USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). This rule, titled "Inclusive Competition and Market Integrity Under the Packers and Stockyards Act," supplements recent revisions in regulations outlining criteria for determining undue or unreasonable conduct by packers, contractors, or live poultry dealers. Aimed at providing essential clarity, the rule defines violations of the P&SA, irrespective of their impact on competition.

USDA acknowledges industry division regarding the inclusion of specific prohibited conduct examples. Additionally, two proposed rules under review at OMB address unfair practices, preferences, competition harm, and poultry grower payment systems. While USDA's regulatory agenda targets February for the release of the proposed rule on unfair practices and January for the poultry grower payment system, no timeline is specified for final rules.

Two populist US senators oppose meatpacking riders

Two farm-state senators, Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), asked their colleagues to oppose riders on the USDA funding bill that would prevent the agency from enforcing new rules promoting competition in the meatpacking industry. In a letter, the senators oppose weakening the Packers and Stockyards Act to protect family farmers and consumers. They emphasize the Act's role in ensuring fair practices in the meat industry and highlight concerns about big ag consolidation. Tester and Grassley previously introduced the Meatpacking Special Investigator Act and advocating for producers impacted by anti-dumping duties.

U.S, Mexico and Canada meat groups sign agreement on trade and animal disease issues

The North American Meat Institute, the Canadian Meat Council (CMC), and Consejo Mexicano de la Carne (COMECARNE) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to collaborate on enhancing trade, reducing regulatory barriers, and improving information sharing among the three countries. The MOU was signed during the COMECARNE annual convention in Mexico.

Additionally, the groups have finalized a joint statement of coordination to address foreign animal diseases, sustainability, and non-tariff trade barriers. These barriers include challenges related to packaging, labeling policies, and burdensome regulations affecting meat production and processing efficiency. The documents have been submitted to regulatory agencies in the US, Mexico, and Canada to convey the groups' perspectives and priorities.