Pig outlook: Lean hog futures hit 5.5 month high driven by technical bulls

Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news

18 October 2024

5 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

December lean hog futures this week pushed to a 5.5-month high as the bulls remain in firm technical command. This comes despite the CME cash hog index posting a new seasonal low. The latest CME lean hog index is down 23 cents to $83.85 as of Oct. 15. Hog traders this the fall and early winter pig crop and pork production is not going to be as large as originally expected. That has led traders to tightening up December futures to the cash index, implying that the seasonal weakness this year will not be as severe as seen in the cash market the past two years.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

U.S. Labor Dept. probes underage worker claims at Tyson plants in Arkansas

The U.S. Department of Labor is conducting an ongoing investigation into claims of underage workers at two Tyson Foods plants in Arkansas. This comes after court documents unsealed in the Western District of Arkansas revealed accusations of child labor violations at Tyson processing facilities.

Specific allegations. A teacher at a school near the Rogers, Arkansas plant reported that a 14-year-old student discussed working at the Tyson facility for the summer. For the Green Forest, Arkansas plant, a mother overheard children between 11-13 years old discussing working night shifts from 11 PM to 7-8 AM. Investigators observed "multiple individuals whose appearance and body language indicated were potentially minor employees below the age of 16" at both locations.

China’s meat imports remain weak

China imported 541,000 MT of meat during September, down 24,000 MT (4.2%) from August and 54,000 MT (9.1%) less than last year. Through the first nine months of the year, China imported 4.94 MMT of meat products, down 770,000 MT (13.5%) from the same period last year

FDA: Livestock antimicrobial sales drop to second lowest in a decade

Sales of antimicrobials for livestock use reached 24 million pounds in 2023, marking the second-lowest total in a decade, according to the FDA). The decline follows regulatory efforts to reduce the use of these drugs to promote animal growth, aiming to preserve their effectiveness for treating human diseases. Sales of medically important antimicrobials, such as tetracyclines and penicillins, fell by 2% last year and have dropped 37% since their peak in 2015. Global efforts to combat antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are intensifying, with the UN calling for a significant reduction in agricultural antimicrobial use by 2030.

USDA annual report on world livestock and trade

Pork

Global production in 2025 is forecast down 1 percent to 115.1 million tons as lower production in China and the European Union more than offsets production growth in the United States, Vietnam, and Brazil. Vietnam pork production is forecast 3 percent higher to 3.8 million tons on expected herd expansion as the swine sector consolidates and improves management of African swine fever (ASF). Brazil production is forecast 1 percent higher to 4.6 million tons on strong export demand and easing input costs.

Despite improved sector profitability in 2024, China pork production is forecast 2 percent lower in 2025 to 55.5 million tons. Reduced sow inventories in 2024 are expected to yield fewer animals available for slaughter in 2025. Additionally, China consumer demand for pork is expected to remain weak given continued economic uncertainty and the growing consumer preference for poultry. European Union production is forecast 2 percent lower to 20.9 million tons due to expected lower hog prices.

Global exports are forecast to increase 1 percent to 10.4 million tons in 2025 as export growth from the United States and Canada offsets lower exports from the EU. Canada exports are forecast 1 percent higher to 1.5 million tons with stable demand from the United States and continued growth to several Asian markets, including Japan and South Korea. EU exports are forecast 2 percent lower to 2.95 million tons given expected lower available supplies for export and ongoing ASF-related trade restrictions.

U.S. production and exports: U.S. production is forecast 2 percent higher in 2025 to 12.9 million tons on growth in slaughter and pigs per litter. Improved sector profitability in 2024 and reduced feed costs are expected to continue to support heavier hog weights. U.S. exports are forecast to increase 3 percent in 2025 to 3.4 million tons given ample domestic supplies and strong export price competitiveness. Despite increased competition from Brazil, Mexico will remain a core market for U.S. exports. Additionally, U.S. exports are expected gain market share from the EU in South Korea and Australia.

August pork exports surpass previous year; beef exports decline

US pork exports in August showed an increase compared to the previous year, driven by strong demand from Mexico. According to data from USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), beef exports experienced a decline, while lamb exports saw an uptick, reaching their highest volume since January.

Pork exports. August pork exports totaled 238,989 metric tons (mt), marking a 6% increase from the previous year. The export value rose by 8% to $702.9 million. Key highlights include:

Strong performance in Western Hemisphere: Exports to Central and South America, the Caribbean, and the ASEAN region showed positive trends.
Record-breaking shipments: Malaysia received record-high shipments, while exports to Colombia achieved a value record.
Year-to-date figures: From January through August, pork exports reached nearly 2 million mt, up 4% from the previous year, with a 7% increase in value to $5.68 billion.

USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom noted the importance of defending market share and expanding consumption in increasingly competitive markets.