12 October 2024

2 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

December lean hog futures prices remain in an uptrend and the bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. That suggests the path of least resistance for prices in the near term will remain sideways to higher. The latest CME lean hog index is up 25 cents to $84.47 as of Oct. 8. The index is in the middle of the recent choppy range and 46 cents above the Sept. 27 low. The pork cutout value was $95.20 on Wednesday, holding in a choppy range from the September low at $92.91 to this month’s high at $96.31. Cash hog and pork market fundamentals remain positive. Fresh pork movement remains robust, suggesting still-strong demand for pork at the meat counter.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

Weekly USDA US pork export sales

Pork: Net US sales of 50,600 MT for 2024 were up 17 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (27,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (7,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Colombia (3,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and the Dominican Republic (1,800 MT), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong (200 MT). Net sales of 100 MT for 2025 were for Australia. Exports of 22,800 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (10,200 MT), Japan (4,200 MT), China (1,900 MT), Honduras (1,500 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT).

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

December lean hog futures--$73.00 to 79.60 and with a sideways-higher bias

December soybean meal futures--$310.00 to $330.00, and with a sideways bias

December corn futures--$4.10 to $4.34 1/4 and a sideways bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures