Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls power ahead
Livstock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news
29 November 2024
2 minute read
By: February lean hog futures this week hit a contract high and the bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage, to suggest more sideways-higher price action in the near term. Fundamentally, however, waning cash fundamentals are expected to begin to weigh on the futures market. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 56 cents to $85.90 as of Nov. 25, extending the three-week decline. December futures settled just $2.80 below today’s cash quote on Tuesday, indicating traders do not anticipate the recent steep cash maket declines to continue into December.
Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry
US pork stocks drop more than average in October
USDA’s Cold Storage report showed frozen beef stocks at 431.9 million lbs. at the end of October, up 19.4 million lbs. from September, whereas the five-year average was a 15.5-million-lb. increase during the month. Beef inventories fell 13.8 million lbs. (3.1%) from year-ago and 47.3 million lbs. (9.9%) from the five-year average. Pork stocks totaled 426.0 million lbs., down 32.4 million lbs. from the previous month, which was nearly double the five-year average decline of 16.8 million lbs. during the month. Pork inventories fell 11.9 million lbs. (2.7%) from year-ago and 63.8 million lbs. (13.0%) from the five-year average.
Brazil, China close to signing pork offal export protocols
Brazil is close to finalizing protocols for exporting pork offal and fish to China, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. The sources said negotiations for both protocols were advanced and should be completed soon, but declined to give a specific timeframe. A deal could impact exports of U.S. pork products, as China imports around half of all U.S. pork offal shipments.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
February lean hog futures--$86.00 to 95.00 and with a sideways-higher bias
January soybean meal futures--$287.00 to $304.50, and with a sideways bias
March corn futures--$4.23 1/4 to $4.40 and a sideways bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
