Pig outlook: Lean hog futures market looking “heavy”
Livestock analyst reports on pig news from around the globe
22 November 2024
3 minute read
By: December Lean hog futures prices have backed down from the October contract high and prices are now in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The market is looking “heavy” from a technical perspective. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Fundamentally, the latest CME lean hog index is down another 26 cents to $87.83 as of Nov. 19, the eighth decline in the last nine days. December hog futures finished Wednesday $7.305 below the cash index, suggesting traders expect further decline in the cash index in the near term. Peak US consumer pork for the year demand has is now past.
Weekly USDA US pork export sales
Pork: Net sales of 18,100 MT for 2024 were down 9 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (4,100 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Japan (2,000 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT, including decreases of 700 MT). Net sales of 2,500 MT for 2025 were primarily for Australia (900 MT), South Korea (600 MT), Colombia (400 MT), Costa Rica (200 MT), and Japan (100 MT). Exports of 32,000 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,600 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), China (2,900 MT), and Colombia (2,800 MT).
China’s pork imports continue to decline
China imported 90,000 MT of pork in October, down 10% from September and 1.6% less than last year. Through the first 10 months of the year, China imported 890,000 MT of pork, down 34.9% from the same period last year.
USDA Livestock Outlook: November 2024
Pork/Hogs: The forecast for fourth-quarter 2024 pork production is reduced by 90 million pounds to 7.3 billion pounds, due to a slower pace of slaughter. Fourth-quarter hog prices are raised to $60 per cwt, 12 percent higher than a year ago. Lower availability of slaughter-ready hogs at lighter dressed weights is forecast into the first half of 2025. First-quarter pork production is lowered to 7 billion pounds, about 1 percent below same-period production this year. First-quarter 2025 hog prices are forecast at $58 per cwt, almost 6 percent higher than a year earlier. Second-quarter 2025 prices are expected to be $62 per cwt, more than 5 percent below same-period prices this year. September pork exports were 7 percent higher than those in September 2023. Third-quarter exports totaled to 1.676 billion pounds, 8.6 percent above same period shipments last year. Total exports for 2024 are forecast at 7.2 billion pounds, 4.8 percent higher than exports last year. Total exports for 2025 are expected to be about 7.4 billion pounds, 2.8 percent higher than exports forecast for 2024.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
December lean hog futures--$78.00 to 82.50 and with a sideways-lower bias
January soybean meal futures--$280.00 to $300.00, and with a sideways bias
March corn futures--$4.29 to $4.47 3/4 and a sideways-higher bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
