Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls keeping price uptrend alive
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news
15 November 2024
2 minute read
By: The bull-market run in lean hog futures is now very mature and there is likely not much more room on the upside. However, the bulls are keeping a price uptrend on the daily bar chart alive. Futures have been supported by strength in the cash market. The latest CME lean hog index is up 6 cents to $89.94 as of Nov. 12, pausing the recent slide. Hog futures traders are waiting to see if cash fundamentals will face seasonal pressure. The sizeable discount the December futures contract holds to the cash hog index suggests traders are more pessimistic on the cash hog market for the weeks ahead.
Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry
Global food commodity prices surged to an 18-month high in October
The UN FAO Food Price Index rising 2% from September to 127.4, marking a 5.5% increase from a year earlier but still 20.5% below the March 2022 peak. Key drivers included a 7.3% rise in vegetable oil prices, attributed to production concerns for palm, soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed oils. Cereal prices rose 0.9% due to higher wheat and corn costs, while sugar prices jumped 2.6% amid a challenging 2024/25 production outlook. Dairy prices also climbed 1.9%, contributing to the index’s three-month upward trend since its February low.
CAFO (concentrated animal feeding operations) ban defeated in California
By a nearly 6-to-1 margin, voters in California’s Sonoma County defeated an effort to limit the size of livestock farms and phase out operations that exceeded the limits.
China's gov’t officials have been actively encouraging large hog producers to reduce their reliance on soybean imports
Particularly soybean meal used in animal feed. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to decrease China's dependence on imported soybeans and improve food security.
China’s meat imports continue to slow
China imported 535,000 MT of meat during October, down 1.1% from September and 3.1% less than year-ago. Through the first 10 months of this year, China imported 5.475 MMT of meat, down 12.5% from the same period last year.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
December lean hog futures--$79.00 to 85.075 and with a sideways-lower bias
December soybean meal futures--$280.00 to $300.00, and with a sideways bias
December corn futures--$4.15 to $4.34 1/4 and a sideways-higher bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
