Pig outlook: Lean hog futures trading turns choppy, sideways

Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news

24 March 2025

4 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Asia

The lean hog futures market the past two weeks has seen choppy and sideways trading action. Some mild technical selling pressure has occurred this week after prices Monday challenged stiff overhead resistance but could not push above it. Also weighing on futures prices at mid-week is news last week’s hog slaughter levels broke a string of year-to-year reductions that began in late January, as last week’s preliminary kill total was up about 2.4% from year-ago. Limiting selling interest in futures this week is news the National Pork Producers Council said all 300-plus U.S. pork harvesting and cold storage facilities have successfully renewed their registrations to export to China. This five-year renewal ensures continued market access to China for U.S. pork producers. The latest CME lean hog index is up 4 cents to $89.32 as of March 17, ending the string of recent losses.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

U.S. pork exports to China fully restored

The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) announced that all 300+ U.S. pork harvesting and cold storage facilities have successfully renewed their registrations to export to China. This five-year renewal, achieved through negotiations by USDA and the U.S. Trade Representative, ensures continued market access for U.S. pork producers.

USDA moves to permanently increase meat processing speeds

The Trump administration announced plans to permanently allow U.S. poultry and pork processing plants to operate at faster speeds, a win for meat industry groups. USDA's decision formalizes higher processing speeds currently allowed under waivers, with chicken plants processing up to 175 birds per minute.

The USDA directive instructs the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) to remove outdated requirements that have slowed production and increased costs. Key changes include extending waivers for higher line speeds in processing facilities and eliminating redundant worker safety data submissions.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized the importance of keeping American producers competitive globally by cutting unnecessary bureaucracy while upholding food safety. Rulemaking to formalize these adjustments will begin immediately.

Meat industry groups, such as the National Chicken Council, support increased line speeds, arguing that they are necessary for efficiency and competitiveness in the global market. The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) praised the move for making the New Swine Inspection System (NSIS) increased line speed program permanent. According to NPPC President Duane Stateler, this move will provide financial security and stability for pork producers, preventing potential losses of up to $10 per hog.

The announcement was also cheered by House Ag Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) and Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) in a statement said, “This is great news for American meat and poultry companies that continuously lead food and worker safety standards worldwide. We applaud [USDA] Secretary Rollins for taking quick and decisive action to allow these businesses to expand their operations in a safe and efficient manner. We look forward to continued collaboration with the administration throughout the rule making process.”

USDA: Opportunities for US Swine Genetics to China

USDA reports China is a significant market for U.S. swine genetics; U.S. live (breeding) swine exports to China were valued at $15.7 million in 2023. China produces approximately half the world’s pork and needs to import 5,000 to 10,000 head of purebred swine every year – with an estimated value of $15 to $30 million. U.S. exports of live breeding swine from 2017 to 2024 accounted for 36 percent of China’s live breeding swine imports; France and Denmark were our primary competitors. Swine semen does not currently have market access to China.

Canada resumes U.S. pork imports after temporary suspension

Canada has resumed imports from Smithfield Foods’ Tar Heel, North Carolina, pork-processing plant after a week-long suspension, the company confirmed. The temporary halt, which lasted from March 6 to March 12, stemmed from an issue with offal shipments at the border and was not related to tariffs, according to Smithfield CEO Shane Smith. The suspension briefly disrupted a key export market amid ongoing trade concerns for U.S. pork producers, who fear the impact of tariff disputes with major buyers like Canada, Mexico, and China.