Pig outlook: Market bottom likely forged in lean hog futures
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news
14 March 2025
4 minute read
By: April lean hog futures prices have made a solid rebound from the early-March low, to suggest a market bottom is in place. Futures prices have been supported by their discounts to the cash hog market. The latest CME lean hog index is up 7 cents to $89.77 as of March 11, ending a five-day price slide. However, weakness in pork cutout has limited the upside in futures. Pork cutout value fell $3.00 to $94.58 Wednesday, the lowest since Feb. 20. Cutout continues to drive trade in the cash hog market. Each time pork cutout trends lower, demand picks up, indicating strong grocer demand.
Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry
Weekly USDA US pork export sales
Pork: Net sales of 20,300 MT for 2025--a marketing-year low--were down 52 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (6,300 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (5,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Australia (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (300 MT). Exports of 33,600 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,200 MT), South Korea (5,900 MT), Japan (4,700 MT), Colombia (2,800 MT), and China (2,600 MT).
USDA monthly WASDE reports on livestock
Total red meat and poultry production for 2025 is raised on higher beef and chicken production forecasts, which is partially offset by lower pork and turkey production forecasts. The higher beef production forecast is due to heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter.
Pork production is lowered on a slower rate of slaughter in the first quarter, partially offset by heavier dressed weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27, providing a further indication of hog supplies for slaughter in the second half of the year. Pork exports are reduced on lower expected domestic supplies and increased global price competition. Hog price forecasts are lowered for the second and third quarters, based on recent prices and slightly weaker demand than previously expected.
USDA: China Livestock and Products Semi-Annual Report
USDA in a post maintains its 2025 forecast on the decline of both pork and beef production. Due to the decline in domestic beef production and growing market demand, Post forecasts beef imports to grow in 2025. Post revised downward its 2025 pork import forecast to levels similar to 2024 owing to depressed demand. The report forecast reflects animal disease policies/restrictions and trade policies in place as of March 3, 2025 and assumes their continuation. Post acknowledges but does not include in its forecast the potential impacts of recent retaliatory tariffs announced on March 4, 2025, by the Chinese Government, which come into effect on March 10, 2025, as well as the impending registration expirations of hundreds of U.S. meat establishments as they are not in effect at the time of this publication. Market access for U.S. beef and pork remains constrained as the Chinese government is not implementing relevant annexes for meat trade specified in the Economic and Trade Agreement (i.e., Phase One Agreement).
China’s Jan.-Feb. meat imports slightly below year-ago
China imported 1.098 MMT of meat (including offal) during the first two months of the year, down 3,000 MT (0.2%) from last year. China doesn’t break down meat imports by category in the preliminary data, but the bulk is pork/pork products.
Global food prices rise in February
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index rose 1.6% in February and was 8.2% above year-ago. While meat prices remained stable, all other price indices rose during February, with the most significant increases recorded for sugar, dairy and vegoils. Compared to year-ago, prices rose 4.9% for meat, 23.2% for dairy and 29.0% for vegoils, while values fell 1.1% for cereal grains and 15.8% for sugar.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
April lean hog futures--$82.50 to $90.00 and with a sideways-higher bias
May soybean meal futures--$300.00 to $320.00, and with a sideways-higher bias
May corn futures--$4.60 to $4.80 and a sideways-higher bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
