Pig outlook: Lean hog futures prices trending up
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff shares' global pig headlines from the week
28 July 2023
2 minute read
By: August lean hog futures prices late this week hit a four-month high and the bulls are in firm near-term technical control. That suggests more sideways-to-higher price action in the near term. Fundamentally, strong consumer demand continues to push the cash hog and pork markets higher. The latest CME lean hog index price is $104.60, up 56 cents from last Thursday. The preliminary calculation puts Monday’s index figure at $105.26, up another 70 cents. Good bacon demand amid peak BLT season and price cuts in the meat case are playing a role in the ongoing advance in lean hog futures.
USDA July Cold Storage Report
Ending U.S. June pork stockpiles tumbled 42 million pounds from May to 490.2 million pounds. The decline compares to year-ago and five-year average June reductions of 4.0 million and 20.3 million pounds, respectively. This latest total represents a 35 million-pound drop below the 5-year average. The low total and large monthly reduction highlight the vigorous consumer demand apparently driving the ongoing hog market rally.
China’s pork imports slowed a little in June but still well ahead of year-ago
China imported 130,000 MT of pork in June. While that was down 7.1% from May, it was up 4.5% from June 2022. Through the first half of 2023, China imported 940,000 MT of pork, up 16.5% from the same period last year.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
August lean hog futures--$97.00 to $105.00 and with a sideways-higher bias
August soybean meal futures--$439.00 to $475.00, and with a sideways-higher bias
December corn futures--$5.40 to $5.90 and a sideways-higher bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
