30 August 2024

4 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

October lean hog futures prices this week hit a three-month high and prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. However, seasonal pressures are in place for cash hog fundamentals. The latest CME lean hog index is down 37 cents to $87.45 as of Aug. 28. The index is down $6.19 from its seasonal peak on Aug. 1. History suggests the cash hog market will continue declining into next week but could stabilize or turn higher soon thereafter. Recent history has the September hog market generally weaker, but not always. The fact that wholesale pork prices are holding firm for this time of year suggests the better August pork sector performance could continue into September.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

Weekly USDA US pork export sales

Pork: Net US sales of 42,200 MT for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (13,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), China (11,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (6,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Colombia (2,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Japan (2,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (100 MT). Exports of 29,300 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,900 MT), Japan (3,600 MT), Colombia (2,400 MT), China (2,100 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT).

NPPC launches Young Pork Advocates program to empower future industry leaders

The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has introduced the "Young Pork Advocates" Strategic Investment Program for individuals aged 18-22. Unveiled at the 2024 World Pork Expo, the program aims to empower young advocates in the pork industry by providing networking opportunities, policy updates, advocacy training, and more. The initiative highlights NPPC's commitment to equipping future industry leaders with the skills and connections needed to drive positive change. Membership benefits include access to industry events, scholarships, and professional development opportunities.

Additionally, the "Young Pork Advocates Issues Meet," a speaking competition for young people aged 17-22, was also introduced at the World Pork Expo. This competition encouraged participants to engage in discussions about pressing issues in the pork industry and devise solutions. The competition concluded with Emma Kuhns winning a $2,500 scholarship and a trip to Washington, D.C., for the NPPC's fall legislative fly-in.

Supportive US frozen meat stocks data

USDA’s Cold Storage Report last Friday afternoon showed US pork stocks totaled 450.7 million lbs., down 24.2 million lbs. from June, far greater than the five-year average 7.2-million-lb. decline for the month. Frozen pork inventories fell 20.1 million lbs. (4.3%) from last year and were 51.5 million lbs. (10.3%) below the five-year average.

New York attorney general Letitia James sues JBS USA

JBS USA is the American arm of the world's largest meatpacker, for allegedly making misleading claims about its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The lawsuit, which challenges JBS's assertions that it will achieve net-zero emissions by 2040, is a significant setback as the company pursues a listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The suit accuses JBS of "greenwashing" by making deceptive statements about its environmental impact in ads and public statements, including claims made by CEO Gilberto Tomazoni during a New York Times event. The National Advertising Review Board had already found JBS's net-zero claims misleading last year.

JBS, already under scrutiny for its environmental practices and past corruption scandals, disputes the allegations and states it remains committed to reducing agriculture’s environmental impact. The lawsuit could further complicate JBS's business plans, including its delayed NYSE listing, and serves as a broader warning to companies regarding the serious consequences of misleading environmental claims.

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

October lean hog futures--$78.70 to 85.00 and with a sideways-higher bias

September soybean meal futures--$300.00 to $325.00, and with a sideways bias

December corn futures--$3.80 to $4.10 and a sideways bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures