July lean hog futures this week careened to a five-month low. That’s the bad news. The good news is that this week’s price action appears to be a “washout” type move that suggests a market bottom is coming sooner rather than later. The latest CME cash hog index is up 13 cents to $92.06 as of June 4. The premium in both June and July lean hog futures is virtually gone, suggesting pessimism among traders for the next few months.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

Germany confirms case of ASF

A case of African swine fever (ASF) has been confirmed on a pig breeding farm in Greifswald in the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the state’s ag ministry said. China and other countries banned imports of German pork in 2020 after an ASF outbreak in the country. China’s import ban remains in place.

USDA US pork export sales

Pork: Net sales of 29,900 MT for 2024 were down 33 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (8,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (8,300 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (3,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (2,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Canada (1,800 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), were offset by reductions for Taiwan (200 MT). Exports of 34,400 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (16,100 MT), Japan (5,100 MT), South Korea (3,600 MT), China (3,000 MT), and Canada (1,400 MT).

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

July lean hog futures--$90.00 to 98.00 and with a sideways-higher bias

July soybean meal futures--$350.00 to $375.00, and with a sideways-lower bias

July corn futures--$4.35 3/4 to $4.60 and a sideways bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures