17 May 2024

2 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

June lean hog futures this week hit a three-month low as the bears remain in firm near-term technical control. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The latest CME lean hog index is up 47 cents to $91.76 as of May 14, marking a new high for the year. After a three-week pause, the cash index may be ready to continue its climb to a seasonal high in summer. Historically, retailers tend to finish their beef purchases for the Memorial Day holiday weekend this week, before shifting attention to purchasing pork.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

Weekly USDA US pork export sales

Pork: Net sales of 21,100 MT for 2024--a marketing-year low--were down 14 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (4,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (4,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,200 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), Colombia (1,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (1,400 MT, including decreases of 700 MT). Exports of 33,200 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,700 MT), Japan (5,000 MT), South Korea (4,300 MT), China (2,800 MT), and Colombia (2,400 MT).

China’s meat imports drop in April

China imported 544,000 MT of meat in April, down 5.9% from the previous month and 8.5% less than last year. Through the first four months of this year, China imported 2.22 MMT of meat, down 12.6% from the same period last year.

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

June lean hog futures--$95.00 to 102.00 and with a sideways-lower bias

July soybean meal futures--$365.00 to $390.00, and with a sideways-higher bias

July corn futures--$4.50 to $4.75 1/2 and a sideways-higher bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures