Pig outlook — Lean hog futures bulls still in control but need to step up, NPPC lobbying Congress

Jim Wyckoff reports on the week's global pig news

12 April 2024

3 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

After opening higher Wednesday, lean hog futures then saw heavy selling pressure that produced a technically bearish “key reversal” down that is one clue that a market top is in place. However, if the hog bulls step right back up and show power yet this week then the near-term technical damage would be repaired and the price uptrend would remain in place. Cash hog fundamentals continue to be on solid ground. The latest CME lean hog index is up another 83 cents to $87.88 as of April 8 and the preliminary calculation puts the index up another 90 cents to $88.78 Thursday. That would mark the largest daily gain since Feb. 20 and the highest quote for the index since August of last year.

National Pork Producers Council lobbying Congress to address state animal welfare laws within US farm bill

The NPPC emphasizes the negative impacts of California's Prop 12 law, including higher prices and reduced availability of pork. NPPC is seeking bipartisan support for federal legislation to preempt state laws and ensure consistency across states. While standalone legislation like the EATS Act hasn't passed, NPPC remains hopeful for a solution in the next farm bill.

“We are looking forward to the farm bill as finding a federal solution for Prop 12,” said NPPC President Lori Stevermer, regarding a legislative fix. “That's what the Supreme Court said — it's an issue and it said that Congress needs to fix it — so we're looking to Congress to fix it. Stevermer said some of the negative impacts of the law warned about by NPPC and other opponents have come to pass. “We're seeing prices of select pork products [that are] 20% higher in California now that Prop 12 is in effect, versus before Prop 12. We're also seeing consumption of fresh pork declining 8% to 10%,” she noted, citing reduced availability and higher prices for the decline.

NPPC CEO Bryan Humphreys added that those impacts are “exactly what [USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack] was referring to when he testified before Congress about the chaos that would ensue, partially in California for consumers, but also with a patchwork across the country, making it almost impossible for producers to comply.”

USDA's NASS unveils changes to livestock reports based on five-year review

USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced it plans to make several changes in the number of states where it will report data in the January Cattle Inventory, December Hogs & Pigs, quarterly Milk Production, monthly Cattle on Feed, weekly Broiler Hatchery, and monthly Chickens and Eggs reports. Summary of those changes:

December Hogs & Pigs: Reduce the number of published states from 50 to 16. The 16 states are Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Texas. The 34 non-published states will be accounted for in Other States.