Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls show some resilience

Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff report on pig news from around the world

17 August 2024

4 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

The lean hog futures bulls showed renewed strength by pushing October futures solidly higher Wednesday. However, prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Follow-through gains on Thursday would likely negate the price downtrend and give the bulls more technical power. Fundamentally, hog futures have been supported by stronger trade in the cash market. The latest CME lean hog index is down 58 cents to $90.34 as of Aug. 12. The preliminary calculation puts the index down another 16 cents to $90.18 as of today. Strength in the wholesale pork market has likely attributed strength in the cash index as strong grocer demand has stabilized pork cutout in the past few days.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

Weekly USDA export sales for US pork

Pork: Net US sales of 20,900 MT for 2024--a marketing-year low--were down 40 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (8,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (3,300 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (1,900 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Canada (1,800 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), and Australia (1,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Net sales of 400 MT for 2025 were primarily for Australia (200 MT). Exports of 28,800 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,500 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), China (3,100 MT), Colombia (2,100 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT).

US beef export value climbs in June; pork trends lower in June but posts strong first half

June exports of US beef reached the highest value in nearly two years, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). While June pork exports were lower year-over-year, shipments through the first half of the year remained ahead of the record value pace of 2023.

Beef exports totaled 110,155 metric tons (mt) in June, down 4% from a year ago but the second largest of 2024. Export value reached $938.3 million, up 3% year-over-year and the highest since August 2022. Exports trended higher to Japan and were the third largest on record to Taiwan, while shipments to Canada were the largest in nearly a decade. June exports to South Korea were below last year but rebounded compared to May. Through the first half of the year, beef export value climbed 5% from a year ago to $5.22 billion, despite a 4% decline in volume (643,733 mt).

“June beef exports performed very well in Japan, which was great to see given the significant headwinds U.S. beef has faced there this year,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Export value also rebounded nicely in Korea and shipments to Taiwan and Canada were outstanding. This made for another strong month in terms of export value per head slaughtered, which was nearly $460 in June.”

June pork exports totaled 224,392 mt, down 9% from a year ago and the lowest since September, while export value fell 5% to $659.7 million. June exports to leading market Mexico were modestly lower year-over-year but still increased in value, while shipments to Korea remained very robust. Other top performers for U.S. pork in June included Central America, the Caribbean and Canada. January-June pork exports reached 1.52 million mt, 3% above the first half of 2023, while export value increased 5% to $4.26 billion.

June was a slower month in a few of our key destinations for U.S. pork, including Mexico and Colombia, where exports have been on a blistering pace and buying accelerated again in July,” Halstrom said. “But June was another terrific month for U.S. pork in Korea, where exports could be record-large this year. Shipments also trended higher year-over-year to Central America and Canada, and it was encouraging to see export value per head slaughtered hold firm in the $66 range.”