Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bears remain in command, FMD case confirmed in Germany
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news
11 January 2025
3 minute read
By: Nearby lean hog futures this week hit a three-month low and bears remain in technical control amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart for February futures. Oversold technical conditions may limit selling pressure this rest of this week. The fresh pork market has rebounded amid solid consumer demand for pork. The latest CME lean hog index fell another 42 cents to $81.59 as of Jan. 6, for the seventh consecutive daily decline. While the index is making new lows, daily drops are less than what was seen late last week and earlier this week, which is likely encouraging traders to narrow futures’ discounts to the cash market.
Germany confirms foot-and-mouth disease in water buffalo herd
German authorities confirmed the country's first outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in nearly 40 years on Friday in a herd of water buffalo on the outskirts of Berlin, reported Reuters.
The national reference laboratory at the the Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI) has detected the FMD virus serotype O in a water buffalo infected from the district of Märkisch-Oderland. Foot-and-mouth disease causes fever and mouth blisters in cloven-hoofed ruminants such as cattle, swine, sheep and goats.
Measures to contain the highly infectious disease, which poses no danger to humans though they can transmit it, are being implemented, and the affected animals have already been euthanised, said local authorities. An exclusion zone of 3 kilometres and a monitoring zone of 10 kilometres have been set up, and no more products or animals may be taken out of these zones, said a federal agricultural ministry spokesperson at a regular government news conference.
Local authorities are investigating how the animals became infected, but there are no plans for measures at the federal or international level, the spokesperson added. Germany and the European Union are officially recognised as being free of the disease. The last cases in Germany occurred in 1988, according to the Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI) animal health research institute. The FLI said the disease occurs regularly in the Middle East and Africa, in many Asian countries and in parts of South America. Illegally imported animal products from these countries pose a threat to European agriculture, it said.
New world screwworm larvae infest open wounds, feeding on living livestock tissue
This is posing severe risks to livestock, wildlife, and humans. USDA is maintaining heightened biosecurity measures to prevent the reintroduction of this pest, eradicated in the U.S. in 1966, while educating stakeholders about detection and prevention strategies.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
February lean hog futures--$77.00 to 82.00 and with a sideways-lower bias
March soybean meal futures--$285.10 to $315.00, and with a sideways bias
March corn futures--$4.50 to $4.70 and a sideways-higher bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures:
