Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bears gain control
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news
2 January 2025
2 minute read
By: February lean hog futures prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and this week hit a 10-week low. Cash hog and pork market fundamentals are also bearish. The latest CME lean hog index is down 8 cents to $84.27 as of Dec. 30, the third straight daily decline. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Tuesday was $79.27. Hog bulls are worried the seasonal selling pressure could prompt cash hog and fresh pork market weakness in the near term. Pork cutout plunged $4.02 to $90.30 Tuesday as all cuts posted losses except for ribs. Movement was strong at 408.44 loads, indicating packers cut prices in an effort to sell more pork.
China’s sow herd, hog slaughter continue to decline
China’s sow herd totaled 40.80 million head at the end of November, according to its ag ministry, down 1.9% from last year. For the first 11 months of this year, China slaughtered 296.11 million head of hogs, down 2.6% from the same period last year.
USMEF reports pork exports to Colombia remain on pace in 2024
Although down modestly in volume in October, pork exports to Colombia remain on a record pace in 2024, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF). October exports fell 4% from a year ago to 10,386 mt, but value still increased 6% to $32.1 million. Through October, exports to Colombia were up 31% to 100,148 mt, while value soared 38% to $287.3 million.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
February lean hog futures--$77.50 to 84.00 and with a sideways-lower bias
March soybean meal futures--$304.00 to $330.00, and with a sideways-higher bias
March corn futures--$4.50 to $4.70 and a sideways-higher bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
