Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls fading
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news
24 January 2025
3 minute read
By: April lean hog futures on Wednesday hit a two-week low and recent selling pressure has given the bears technical momentum.
Bulls had been encouraged by strength in the CME lean hog index, which is up another 6 cents to $81.46 as of Jan. 20. The preliminary calculation shows the cash index will be up another 26 cents to $81.72 today, which would be the second-largest daily gain since the index bottomed on Jan. 9. Fresh pork movement remains good, which is a sign of continued robust retailer demand. As cattle and beef prices remain at recent highs, consumers have been favoring more pork at the meat counter.
China’s hog farmers recover, cattle and dairy still struggling
China’s hog farms have recovered from a period of losses, while declines in cattle and dairy farming have been partially alleviated, an ag ministry official said. However, the meat and dairy sectors are struggling with oversupply challenges due to a slowing economy and declining consumption. China will continue to implement policies to address challenges in the beef and dairy sectors and stabilize production capacity. Authorities are investigating beef imports as part of efforts to protect domestic producers. China is also considering trade restrictions on imports of dairy and pork from the European Union.
China’s pork imports rise in December
China imported 200,000 MT of pork in December, up 20,000 MT (11.1%) from November and 7.7% above year-ago. In 2024, China imported 2.28 MMT of pork, down 15.7% from the previous year.
China’s pork output falls for first time in four years
China produced 57.06 MMT of pork in 2024, down 1.5% from 2023 and the first annual decline in four years. Hog slaughter totaled 702.56 million head last year, down 3.3% from 2023. In the fourth quarter, pork production fell 1.8% from year-ago to 14.66 MMT. China’s hog herd totaled 427.43 million head at the end of December, down 1.6%. China’s beef output rose 3.5% to 7.79 MMT in 2024, while poultry output increased 3.8% to 26.6 MMT and lamb and mutton decreased 2.5% to 5.18 MMT.
USDA withdraws proposed rule on Fair and Competitive Livestock and Poultry Markets
Despite this, the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) affirmed its continued support for the rule’s intent and purpose. The withdrawal provides an opportunity to revisit the matter in the future and work with stakeholders to implement the Packers and Stockyards Act. AMS emphasized that this decision does not reflect a change in its interpretation of authority.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
April lean hog futures--$84.50 to $90.00 and with a sideways-lower bias
March soybean meal futures--$300.00 to $321.60, and with a sideways-higher bias
March corn futures--$4.75 to $5.00 and a sideways-higher bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
